Thread by @StocksResearch

Today was a very weird trading day for our markets.

Short-thread on what I feel is happening.

(1/n)

Since Coronavirus is a global problem, i have in the past written we should monitor American markets and we shall reflect what they are doing.

Yesterday & Today, Global Markets were all up by 1-3%.

(2/n)

Nifty too opened at a gap-up, but the selling presser was immense, Nifty instead of being up, ended the day down by about 1% from previous close and about 2.5% down from day highs.

(3/n)

This under-performance to the globe was very weird today, We should have been in the green since our Economy is re-opening in the so called Lockdown 3.0.

(4/n)

What i feel now if this has to emerge as a sustainable trend it would mean that we have domestically something much more wrong than something that is wrong in America or Europe.

(5/n)

Global Economy is really in a bad shape, Indian Economy too is extremely weak, while Global Economies have moved fast and given a lot of Stimulus to industry we are lagging behind, only RBI has been showing animal spirits so far to revive the economy.

(6/n)

While, Economic reasons might be a justification for the under-performance if we look at Coronavirus situation that is a bit stressful as per me.

(7/n)

When I sent out this tweet in January

https://twitter.com/StocksResearch/status/1220222357580632066

Coronavirus was a Chinese problem.

(8/n)

What followed was, While the curve for China flattened around February end we saw Europe getting attacked by the virus.

As a result, February end to April, Europe had massive growth in numbers which off late peaked out or slowed.

(9/n)

In March to May period so far America has had the worst news on Coronavirus front and several people believe it is close to the peak or the growth is now slowing out.

(10/n)

Amidst all of this, India went into a total lockdown since March which saved lives, however testing continues to be low even after 45 days of lockdown at 864 tests per 1 million while USA is at 22960 tests per 1 million or EU average of around 30,000 tests per million.

(11/n)

Now as the world is re-opening, India too is re-opening as we have no further room left for Lockdown because our Economy cannot afford a lockdown any further.

(12/n)

While some of Europe as well as America has reached supposed peaked, Indian situation on Coronavirus if we look at daily case count chart does not look all that promising or peaked out.

Many of our market friends called it a flat curve and a peak in Mid April too.

(13/n)

So we are practically re-opening the country without reaching a peak as our government does not have much of an option left anymore, The government tried to save lives of the people as much as they could and now its upto the people.

(14/n)

While vaccination hopes are good, to formulate, produce, administer it will take a great amount of time and in a lockdown easing situation vaccination will hardly matter because if we have to live with Coronavirus around probably people are going to get it before vaccine.

(15/n)

Remember all this while, Economy remains in a rubble and the forecasts ahead are full of bankruptcies, NPAs, defaults and more domestically.

(16/n)

So what I Fear right now is :-

Jan Feb we had bad news from China
Feb March we had bad news from Europe.
Mar April we had bad news from USA.
May/June we are at a big Domestic Risk now.

We saw what Jamaat caused, We saw what happened at Liquor shops yesterday.

(17/n)

I might be wrong & I would love to be wrong on this one, but I feel if this is becoming a domestic situation even a rare decoupling from Global Markets can take place.

Having said that, Market's least of our worries if so.

All in All, Stay Safe folks!

END OF THREAD

(18/18)