Wow. They really did publish a cubic fit with deaths heading to zero.
Notice the visual trick here of trying overlaying outdated forecasts next to that cubic fit, which is the only way of making it look sane.
Notice the visual trick here of trying overlaying outdated forecasts next to that cubic fit, which is the only way of making it look sane.
Bananas. Bonkers. Batshit.
Imagine thinking that naive cubic curve fitting makes sense here, even when you know that hundreds of thousands are infected, and there are tens of thousands of new cases each day.
Students, don't do this at home.
Imagine thinking that naive cubic curve fitting makes sense here, even when you know that hundreds of thousands are infected, and there are tens of thousands of new cases each day.
Students, don't do this at home.
Also, just look at the graph. There's massive day-of-the-week seasonality. It follows that the cubic prediction will shift massively, depending on what day of the week it's estimated on.
(To see this, connect the weekly peaks; you get a very different pattern.)
(To see this, connect the weekly peaks; you get a very different pattern.)
Just had a reporter call me to ask me about this graph.
They had to keep reminding me that they couldn't print the language I was using.
I would take a deep breath, and then continue, only to quickly earn another reminder.
@#$*&@#$#*&@#$&*@#$!!!
They had to keep reminding me that they couldn't print the language I was using.
I would take a deep breath, and then continue, only to quickly earn another reminder.
@#$*&@#$#*&@#$&*@#$!!!
Thing is, the CEA doesn’t just let an intern tweet these things out.
Given that Hassett’s cubic fit became politically sensitive, this graph likely went through the CEA staff, up to the Chair and through White House Comms before it got tweeted out.
And no-one saw a problem.
Given that Hassett’s cubic fit became politically sensitive, this graph likely went through the CEA staff, up to the Chair and through White House Comms before it got tweeted out.
And no-one saw a problem.
It’s a thuggish, murderous indifference to reality.
