Thread by @JeremyKonyndyk

Why is reopening premature?

Right now we're depriving the fire of oxygen, and that is keeping it in check. But it is still taking advantage of any oxygen it can find. The states with seemingly milder outbreaks need to be very wary about this.

In one San Francisco district, antibody testing found around 2% of people have had the virus. Of those, 90% were people whose jobs required working outside the home.

sfgate.com/news/editorspi…

This report, from Michigan, finds that most new cases are among essential workers and high-risk residential facilities. mlive.com/public-interes…

This report finds that half of new deaths in Maryland are coming from nursing homes - a common theme across much of the country. washingtonpost.com/local/maryland…

And there has been an extraordinary series of outbreaks in meatpacking plants across the country. cnn.com/2020/04/26/bus…

And in prisons as well. npr.org/sections/coron…

The common thread here is that people who can't physically distance - either due to unsafe living conditions or unsafe working conditions - are now driving the US outbreak.

Those who *can* physically distance have remained fairly safe.

But just the subset of people who can't stay-at-home safely are generating enough new cases to basically hold the US outbreak level overall. They're providing enough oxygen to keep the fire burning.

To put it out, we need test-trace-isolate-protect - that's the bucket of water.

Many states that haven't been hard hit yet are those whose outbreaks were less advanced than NY's or MI's when lockdown began.

But jumping the gun on reopening will expand the number of their people leaving home to work or gather - pumping more oxygen onto the flames.