Thread by @Paeno

I'm proud of this one. Hopefully, it makes you think.

Jonathan Taylor Will be a Workhorse But Will it be in Year One? 4for4.com/fantasy-footba… via @4for4football

Jonathan Taylor is going to be a stud — there is absolutely no question in my mind.

However, considering you have to draft him at the beginning of the 3rd-round it's important to consider his range of outcomes — not just his talent.

An interesting comp for Jonathan Taylor is Nick Chubb —explosive 2.5-down runners with similar draft capital and most importantly, drafted to very similar situations:

#Browns Carlos Hyde, Duke Johnson, Nick Chubb
#Colts Marlon Mack, Nyheim Hines, Jonathan Taylor

Chubb truthers, like myself, celebrated confirmation bias of his rookie season breakout, but year one could’ve looked much different had the Browns not traded Carlos Hyde in Week 6 to the Jaguars.

Weeks 1-6

Hyde - 114 carries, PPR RB17

Chubb - 16 carries, PPR RB59

Then, in Week-4 vs the Raiders Chubb stole the show while still getting just 3 carries.

Week-4: 3 carries 105 yards 2TDs 🔥

Despite Chubb's clearly superior efficiency he didn't see an increase in touches.

Week-5: 3 carries 2 yards ❄️
Week-6: 3 carries 25 yards❄️

But what if Week-4 never happened? What if the Browns played the 4-12 Raiders *after* the trade deadline?

While the cream (Chubb) eventually rises to the top, it doesn't always happen right away. The same is true for Taylor.

- Fight bias
- Think in range of outcomes