Best move: contain virus like other countries have done.
But here's a steelman case for "COVID-19 is serious, but tactics should change"
>90% of US deaths over 55
~75% of US hospitalizations over 50
66% of NY hospitalizations contracted at home
May be harder to spread outdoors
But here's a steelman case for "COVID-19 is serious, but tactics should change"
>90% of US deaths over 55
~75% of US hospitalizations over 50
66% of NY hospitalizations contracted at home
May be harder to spread outdoors
I still think best policy is what other countries have done: drive daily new cases down, ideally to zero.
Then use tech (test/trace/isolate) & policy (eg central quarantine) to keep the reproduction number below one until drug or vaccine arrives.
endcoronavirus.org/countries#winn…
Then use tech (test/trace/isolate) & policy (eg central quarantine) to keep the reproduction number below one until drug or vaccine arrives.
endcoronavirus.org/countries#winn…
That said, let's indulge the steelman case for changing tactics.
Not the naive "let's shake hands". But the one that says "the virus mainly hits older people, so it wasn't a big deal. Some are contracting virus at home, so lockdown didn't work".
What's the issue here? [cont.]
Not the naive "let's shake hands". But the one that says "the virus mainly hits older people, so it wasn't a big deal. Some are contracting virus at home, so lockdown didn't work".
What's the issue here? [cont.]
Well, one issue is that it's not acceptable to just let your older citizens die when other countries have managed to contain it.
South Korea has 1/6 the population but 1/300 the deaths of the US (~250 vs ~75,000). Seoul vs NYC even more stark.
South Korea has 1/6 the population but 1/300 the deaths of the US (~250 vs ~75,000). Seoul vs NYC even more stark.
Another issue is that US "lockdown" has been a cargo-cult lockdown that didn't copy the other aspects of successful responses, like mass testing, central quarantine, masks, and many other details.
See this thread from March 16 on this:
See this thread from March 16 on this:
But essentially the issue is it is just a very bad idea to let the virus go vertical.
Moral: many older Americans will die, unknown long-term effects on younger
Pragmatic: economy won't recover till virus is solved
Realpolitik: the US's standing in the world will diminish
Moral: many older Americans will die, unknown long-term effects on younger
Pragmatic: economy won't recover till virus is solved
Realpolitik: the US's standing in the world will diminish
