Asfandyar Mir Profile picture
May 8, 2020 18 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Thanks @JJSchroden for another episode of the Afghanistan panel. Its great to be sharing the twitter stage with @OmarSadr and @ andrewquilty #AFGpanel 1/n
I have been asked to comment on al-Qaida in South Asia. I have written about different facets of the politics of al-Qaida’ South Asia operation here: tandfonline.com/doi/suppl/10.1…, here: mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.116…, and here: lawfareblog.com/al-qaedas-cont… 2/n
Al-Qaida’s South Asia operation, known now as al-Qaida in Indian Subcontinent since al-Qaida's turn to official franchising, remains one of the most important -- if not the most important – franchise of al-Qaida’s central (a moniker given by US, but embraced by al-Qaida). 3/n
After US invasion of AFG, al-Qaida’s Pak-based op revived org 03 onward, hosted much of AQ’s central leadership; recently, leaders such as Zawahiri & Hamza appear to have been with South Asia branch. From 06-12, South Asia op was key node of its int’l terror plotting. 4/n
As US pulls out from AFG, the question of al-Qaida’s status in AFG is imp to policymakers; some want to know if al-Qaida will attempt another 9/11 type attack due to reduced US presence. Others want to dismiss al-Qaida altogether, like Sec Pompeo: foxnews.com/media/sec-pomp… 5/n
Predicting attacks and strategy of clandestine terror groups is hard, so I track indicators of political strengths, weaknesses, strategic focus of the group, try to assess the trajectory of indicators and shifts. Here are my assessments on where group is at. 6/n
On side of strengths, al-Qaida in South Asia’s political cohesion is good; despite attempts by many states, group hasn’t fragmented or splintered; letters left behind by Bin Laden, messaging, behaviors suggest high level of obedience to top bosses like Zawahiri. 7/n
Al-Qaida in South Asia has many important, some powerful allies, who provide material and political support; a main one is the Afghan Taliban, which provides both logistical help and political cover; another one is TTP... 8/n
...which has functioned as paramilitary of al-Qaida in the past; a Kashmir-based faction Ansar Ghazwa Tul Hind; Kashmir-focused, Pakistan-based jihadis like Jaish-e-Muhammed... 9/n
...Al-Qaida in South Asia also has robust relationships with groups from beyond *but in sanctuary in) South Asia, such as the ETIM and IJG... 10/n
Another strength of the South Asia op is its mix of fighters, who have experience of fighting amid high-tempo US CT pressure; it also has a CRBN cell, about which not a lot is known; the cell consistently tries to access black-market of loose materials... 11/n
...I don't want to inflate the threat here; it may well be that this cell is a road to nowhere, as is the record of last decade, but the political commitment of the group to the cell has struck me in my work. 12/n
Final strength I'd note are major strategic opportunities argued by the group. The obvious one is the US drawdown from Afghanistan, which it can frame as its victory. A second one is India’s worsening relationship with its Muslim population, salient for al-Qaida as a whole. 13/n
On the side of weaknesses, the group’s leadership succession is uncertain; who will succeed chief Asim Umar given he appears dead? Al-Qaida hasn’t announced anyone yet or for that matter admitted Umar’s death...no Khalid Batrafi (of AQAP) like figure waiting in wings. 14/n
Another issue for the group is its organizational strength, which remains constrained; it hasn’t recovered from the US drone war from 08-15; previous losses *deter* it, much like other al-Qaida franchises, from plotting ops which invite US wrath in form of similar campaign. 15/n
A final weakness imo is that it is short on western foreign fighters. Even though the turn of foreign fighters towards ISIS has dwindled, al-Qaida’s South Asia operation doesn’t seem to have energized foreign fighter streams. That can change. 16/n
Let me conclude with a word on al-Qaida’s future strategy: from 03-12, al-Qaida in South Asia focused on three strategic priorities; protecting leadership, Afghanistan, int'l terror; since 13, priorities became leadership protection, Afghanistan, preventing fragmentation… 17/n
Going forward, based on the group’s public outputs, what it is socializing its audiences in, there appear to be two priorities; shift to India/Kashmir given it sees the war in Afghanistan ending and international terrorism, including against US. n/n

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More from @asfandyarmir

Jul 31, 2022
There is now growing chatter that the two strikes this morning in Kabul were drone strikes, likely against ISIS-K targets.
Now @SYSSFZ is quoting a Taliban security officer that the strikes (?) were drone strikes against ISIS-K leaders:
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Jul 29, 2022
Interesting and unusual interview of Chinese consul general in Karachi Li Bijian on Pakistan’s political situation, challenges facing Chinese investors and security situation. Some highlights: geo.tv/latest/430300-…
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After Pak missed the July 2 IMF board meeting & the currency started crashing, it was overdetermined that Pak will not be able to wait till the next meeting in August & ask for an early disbursal of the IMF tranche. So in that sense I am not surprised this happened. But…
…fact that Bajwa made this call to Dep Sec Sherman tells me the crisis has deepened, other options stand exhausted, and the economy is teetering on the brink. Worth remembering that last week, Pak PM assistant Fatemi also met Sherman. state.gov/deputy-secreta…
We will see if the US gov’t is able (& willing?) to do anything. Still overall the US has been working with Pak on various issues since late last year — despite shadow of the US withdrawal from AFG, memory of Pak’s support of Taliban, as well as Khan’s regime change theatrics.
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Jul 20, 2022
How bad is the economic crisis in Pakistan? Here is what I am tracking:
.@FaseehMangi watches Pak's access to int'l capital market, which is looking grim:
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Jul 19, 2022
[Thread] Highlights from the UN 1267 sanctions committee monitoring team’s latest report on Al-Qaeda and ISIS: documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/…
Al-Qaeda is more settled and Zawahiri more comfortable and communicative since the Taliban’s takeover. It doesn’t pose an immediate threat from AFG due to lack of capability; it also doesn’t wish to embarrass or make things difficult for the Taliban.
Al-Qaeda has a committee called the Hittin Committee, which manages global leadership. Next in line for the group after Zawahiri are core’s Adl, Maghrebi, AQIM’s Yazib Mebrak and Shabaab’s Diriye; Idlib-based Hurras leader Suri is also on the committee. Hittin has demoted AQAP.
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May 31, 2022
.@IKPeshawar reports Pak & TTP have "agreed to extend the ceasefire and continue peace talks following separate meetings with Mullah Muhammad Hassan Akhund, Acting Prime Minister of the ‘Islamic Emerate of Afghanistan (IEA)’ at his office the other day." dawn.com/news/1692383/i…
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"...days of “intense and extensive negotiations” in the Afghan capital attended by senior level delegations from the two sides that at one point seemed close to breakdown...Sirajuddin Haqqani, who is the central mediator, helped bring the talks back on track, sources said."
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