Thread: What does "learning to live with COVID-19 mean? What percentages hide.
1/The "herd immunity" (not through vaccination) argument is making a comeback as people either get tired of the lock down or think HI the only way to save the economy.
1/The "herd immunity" (not through vaccination) argument is making a comeback as people either get tired of the lock down or think HI the only way to save the economy.
2/Some may be genuinely worried about people dying of hunger because of the lock-down. But to argue for herd immunity so people don't die of hunger, is akin to cutting off one's nose to spite one's face. Here are some numbers that illustrate why:
3/It isn't yet clear whether immunity to COVID-19 is achieved after being infected, or the degree of that immunity, or it's longevity. But let us put that aside for now. For HI to kick in 60-70% of the population will have to be infected (could be higher also).
4/Let us assume that HI will kick in at only 40% just to be conservative. Mortality rates among the elderly are higher, and we don't want to use our children to build immunity. So lets assume that it is somehow possible to shield all those below 20 and above 64 from the virus.
5/As per Census 2011, this means that 50% of the population will have to be segregated and protected. Okay, let us assume it is possible to do this. Now let us assume that 40% of only this remaining population between the ages of 20 and 64 will get infected and HI will set in.
6/This still means that 276 million people in India (only 23% of the population) will need to get infected and HI will kick in. And this will be the health-wise robust population between the ages of 20 and 64
7/A study in New York shows that COVID-19 fatality rate in the age group 20-44 is 0.24% and that for age group of 45-64 is 1.65%. Let us assume that in India, the fatality is a third of this -again to be conservative. I.e, 0.08% for 20-44 year olds and 0.55% for 45-64 year olds
8/Assuming a population proportionate age distribution among those infected, it would mean of the 276 million with the COVID-19 infection, 201 million would be in the 20-44 age bracket and 75 million in the 45-64 age bracket.
9/So even assuming conservative death rates and conservative incidence figures and the impossibility of segregating all the elderly and all the children, the the deaths would still be 573,000.
Annual TB deaths in India are about 440,000 (2018 figures).
Annual TB deaths in India are about 440,000 (2018 figures).
10/Lesson: Percentages can hide a lot. 1% (or 0.2% death rate assumed here) seems a lot less than 5.7 lakh deaths no? And these are just deaths among the able bodied younger people. So, quarantining and containment of hot spots (maybe not nation-wide) will still be necessary IMO
11/That the Government is unable and unwilling to ensure that the lock down itself does not kill people, that people don't go hungry, that they can live with dignity despite the abrupt halt to economic activity, cannot be hidden behind pseudo-scientific claptrap.
12/So, stop the false binaries. We have to ensure that neither COVID-19, nor hunger, kills people.
