1/n Pre-print: proposal and demonstration of a new modeling framework. A departure from the IAM-SSP framework. Quantitative assessments for climate-compatible futures are possible without assuming that these can and/or will only be modeled using IAMs osf.io/ge92t 2/n We begin with a new country classification into 4 development groups, using 13 indicators for human development, energy access, wealth and income, and workforce characteristics.

1/n Does the fact that an IAM is open source and the results are transparently available make the fact that their very structure disallows distributive justice any less true? No.

https://twitter.com/HMcJeon3y4/status/1640484871997980678

2/n In fact, that IAMs are largely constructed in the developed world should not be reason enough for the complete lack of equity, almost universally across the models. Equity and justice are universal concepts after all, are they not?

In response to calls for “changing” the IPCC’s intergovernmental approval process and sanitizing it of “political” influence. A thread. 1/n Since the publication of IPCC’s Synthesis Report last week and especially since the publication of the Earth Negotiations Bulletin’s report of the approval process, there have been several calls for a change in the process. (enb.iisd.org/58th-session-i…)

EQUITY ASSESSMENT OF THE IPCC AR6 SCENARIOS
Pre-print of paper (osf.io/p46ty/) and policy brief (tinyurl.com/2p8xrfby) on “Equity Assessment of Global Mitigation Pathways in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report”. 1/n We assess regional outcomes in 367 of the 700 scenarios assessed by the IPCC AR6 that correspond to temperature targets of 1.5 and 2 deg. C. (Scenario Categories C1 to C4 in the WG-III report)

Media outreach of the IPCC often does not cover assessments from the their reports important for developing countries. NIAS held a webinar on “IPCC-AR6: An Indian Perspective” on 4 May 2022. Here is a thread on and recording of the talk by @tjayaraman highlighting the key points 1/n IPCC an extraordinary effort at international scientific but essential to remember that we live in a grossly unequal world. Key challenge for the IPCC: discourse should not be dominated by 20% of the world purporting to speak for the remaining 80%

Talk on “Keeping 1.5 deg. C Alive” at #COP26 was not recorded. But here is a summary of the talk and discussion after. A thread. @tjayaraman @nit_set @JMauskar @rishpardikar @3rdworldnetwork @bforboseman @Peters_Glen @KevinClimate @moefcc @HarryWinkler 1/n A reminder of why CBDR. Why Articles 3.1, 4.3-4.7? Where were we in 1990? 71% of emissions by 18% of global population in developed countries. Situation has not changed much between 1991 and 2019, except perhaps for China.

1/n At #COP26, UNEP Gap report authors, when questioned at their session today, claimed that their assessments are "value-neutral". They don't include "fairness" and "equity" in their assessment as it is subjective!! But that's not all... 2/n Here is what they do. They put the G20 countries in one table with no distinction between the Annex-1 and non-Annex-1, G20 parties. The differences in some of these countries in terms of per capita capita energy use, emissions, and incomes is HUGE! But that's not all...

The Climate Equity Monitor, is to the best of our knowledge, the first of its kind from a developing country. It tracks climate effort with a core focus on equity. You can access it here - climateequitymonitor.in The CEM tracks the climate debt and/or credit of Annex-I (developed) and non-Annex-I (developing) countries, the fair share of the remaining carbon budget, historical and current emissions - cumulative, annual, and per capita,

As COP-26 is upon us, it is useful to reiterate the key issue the world faces. The REMAINING CARBON BUDGET for 1.5 deg. C and even for a reasonable chance of 2 deg. C, is severely limited. The reason for this is high HISTORICAL and CONTINUING EMISSIONS in rich countries. 2/n ~1.07 deg. C warming that the world is already experiencing is a result of past emissions which are disproportionately from rich countries. Even since 1990 (post UNFCCC), these countries have continued to occupy disproportionately higher carbon space.

India's Vaccine Inequity - A Thread
On vaccination, the GoI has had to repeatedly eat crow. This is just another instance, despite the implied state-blaming in today's speech. The GoI must also withdraw the reservation of 25% doses for the private sector that is still in place 1/n Till 31 May 2021, India had covered only 12% of its population with at least one dose. Even by its own classification of vulnerability, only 43% of the 60+ age group had been partially vaccinated. Most of them in urban areas

THREAD ON THE ELUSIVE SECOND DOSE
1/n In the months of May and June, India will need to administer at least 125 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines as SECOND DOSES alone. If vaccine supplies are not augmented, many risk missing their second dose. 2/n As of 30th April, about 152 million vaccine doses had been administered, of which 82% were first doses. So from 1 May onwards, at least 125 million doses had to be reserved as second doses, to be administered in the months of May and June assuming a 8-9 week gap between doses

Thread On the Supply-Need Vaccination Gap: At the current rate of vaccination, this will happen only by November 2022. If India wishes to cover 60 to 100% of its eligible population by December 2021, the current gap between need and supply is about 70 to 170 million doses/month 1/n: 69% of India’s population is above 18 years of age in 2021, i.e. technically eligible for the COVID-19 Gap (as per estimates of the MoHFW). This varies between 60% in Bihar to 76% in Tamil Nadu.

Thread: What does "learning to live with COVID-19 mean? What percentages hide.
1/The "herd immunity" (not through vaccination) argument is making a comeback as people either get tired of the lock down or think HI the only way to save the economy. 2/Some may be genuinely worried about people dying of hunger because of the lock-down. But to argue for herd immunity so people don't die of hunger, is akin to cutting off one's nose to spite one's face. Here are some numbers that illustrate why:

Thread:
Those who are scoffing that "nothing went wrong with the grid yesterday" should be enormously thankful instead of smug. The POSOCO report on the PM's event yesterday evening shows quite clearly what an "unprecedented challenge" it was (their words not mine). POSOCO had advised all regions to ensure that the black start units were in good condition. If that does not signal how worried they were, I don't know what will.
posoco.in/wp-content/upl…

According to the Saubhagya dashboard there are 21.3 crore households in India of which only 18,734 households are un-electrified. Which means 21.29 crore households use and pay for electricity. Assuming that 50% of all electrified households participate in the PM's call Assuming 2 LED bulbs (to be conservative) will be shut for 9 mins in each households for this. Assuming average cost of energy to be Rs.2/kWh since many households using electricity for residential use may be paying BPL rates also.