(Thread) Trump Doubles Down
In a pandemic, a president like Obama would try to save lies while minimizing damage to the economy.
Trump doesn’t care about saving lives or the “economy.”
He cares about maintaining power.
That explains this morning's Twitter storm.
In a pandemic, a president like Obama would try to save lies while minimizing damage to the economy.
Trump doesn’t care about saving lives or the “economy.”
He cares about maintaining power.
That explains this morning's Twitter storm.
1/ Trump can’t manage the pandemic the way Obama would have.
🔹He doesn’t know how
🔹He isn’t equipped (he spent 3 years dismantling the government and appointing people “loyal” to him instead of experts)
🔹Using the government to help people goes against the GOP ideology.
🔹He doesn’t know how
🔹He isn’t equipped (he spent 3 years dismantling the government and appointing people “loyal” to him instead of experts)
🔹Using the government to help people goes against the GOP ideology.
2/ Recall that Trump and Obama draw their authority from different sources.
Obama is what Max Weber calls a rule of law leader.
(Paraphrasing from Weber's Politics as Vocation)
archive.org/details/weber_…
A rule of law leader relies on truth.
Obama is what Max Weber calls a rule of law leader.
(Paraphrasing from Weber's Politics as Vocation)
archive.org/details/weber_…
A rule of law leader relies on truth.
3/ Trump is what Weber called “charismatic leader.” (Today we might say demagogue or cult leader.)
He derives his authority from his "instincts."
This requires lies and myth (My instincts are superior to science! I have a mystic connection to the nation’s destiny! I know best!)
He derives his authority from his "instincts."
This requires lies and myth (My instincts are superior to science! I have a mystic connection to the nation’s destiny! I know best!)
4/ People are amazed that Trump is doubling down on the strategy that caused the Republicans to lose the midterms, the recent Wisconsin election, and bleed support since then.
Trump's Tweet storm this morning was the same thing we’ve seen from him for 4 years.
A sampling⤵️
Trump's Tweet storm this morning was the same thing we’ve seen from him for 4 years.
A sampling⤵️
5/ He's not suddenly losing it.
He's doing the exact same thing he's been doing for 4 years.
Consider what would happen if instead he suddenly tried to do an about-face and handle the pandemic the way a rule-of-law leader would.
He would fail miserably.
He's doing the exact same thing he's been doing for 4 years.
Consider what would happen if instead he suddenly tried to do an about-face and handle the pandemic the way a rule-of-law leader would.
He would fail miserably.
6/ He isn’t that kind of leader. He doesn’t know how to be.
Moreover (and this is important) his base would lose interest in him.
He’d cease to be their hero, the strongman doing battle with their enemies, fighting the “Deep State” and socking it to the libs.
Moreover (and this is important) his base would lose interest in him.
He’d cease to be their hero, the strongman doing battle with their enemies, fighting the “Deep State” and socking it to the libs.
7/ Without his base, he’s nothing.
So he has two options: Double-down and keep his base excited, or try to act like Obama and fall short. He can’t out-Obama Obama.
His base doesn’t want a rule of law leader.
They want a rule breaker.
So he has two options: Double-down and keep his base excited, or try to act like Obama and fall short. He can’t out-Obama Obama.
His base doesn’t want a rule of law leader.
They want a rule breaker.
8/ This is the same reason Democrats shouldn’t try to “fight like” Republicans. They’ll never do it as well.
If Democrats try to compete in the arena of “who fights dirtiest” they’ll lose. You can’t out-Herod Herod.
Democrats (and Trump critics) want a rule of law leader.
If Democrats try to compete in the arena of “who fights dirtiest” they’ll lose. You can’t out-Herod Herod.
Democrats (and Trump critics) want a rule of law leader.
9/ What’s amazing to people is that according to every objective measure, Trump’s handling of the pandemic is a colossal failure, yet he retains more than 40% approval.
That’s because a lot of people reject "objective measures."
They want the myth of the strongman.
That’s because a lot of people reject "objective measures."
They want the myth of the strongman.
Yup, I meant "save lives" in Tweet #1, not "save lies"
I can't decide whether to blame the keyboard gremlins or fire my proofreader (even though I don't have one)
I can't decide whether to blame the keyboard gremlins or fire my proofreader (even though I don't have one)
10/ Trump also retains better than 40% support because has a firm grip on what’s left of the GOP, and he has a well-oiled propaganda loop.
Doubling down is therefore the smarter strategy. He can retain the support he has, and try to expand that.
Or he can lose his base.
Doubling down is therefore the smarter strategy. He can retain the support he has, and try to expand that.
Or he can lose his base.
11/ If he tries to act like Obama, he'll stop thrilling his base, which means losing support, and he STILL won’t win over Rule of Law people.
He’s already burned his bridges with people who prefer rule of law.
So doubling down is the smarter (and more cynical) strategy.
He’s already burned his bridges with people who prefer rule of law.
So doubling down is the smarter (and more cynical) strategy.
12/ Trump’s tirade this morning followed the same formula he’s been using for years— times ten.
🔹Embrace conspiracy theories
🔹Make himself the victim of an insidious plot to destroy America.
🔹Call any reporting he doesn’t like “fake news”
🔹Embrace conspiracy theories
🔹Make himself the victim of an insidious plot to destroy America.
🔹Call any reporting he doesn’t like “fake news”
13/ This retweet probably the most startling⤵️
🔹Hint that he will engage in outrageous, rule-breaking actions
Promising to break rules and norms does two things:
First, it stokes his base. They think: "Our team will win! Yay! Trump is the Strongman who will Trample the Libs!"
🔹Hint that he will engage in outrageous, rule-breaking actions
Promising to break rules and norms does two things:
First, it stokes his base. They think: "Our team will win! Yay! Trump is the Strongman who will Trample the Libs!"
14/ Second, it causes panic meltdown in the opposition.
After the Flynn thing, my mentions were flooded with this kind of thing:
Consider how a Tweet like this one⤵️ creates a self-fulfilling cycle.
Trump supporters see it and think: “Wow! Trump really IS all powerful!"
After the Flynn thing, my mentions were flooded with this kind of thing:
Consider how a Tweet like this one⤵️ creates a self-fulfilling cycle.
Trump supporters see it and think: “Wow! Trump really IS all powerful!"
15/ Republicans see ⤵️and think, “I’d better tow the line! Trump will win and I want to be on the winning side.” (That’s what hierarchical thinkers care about.)
It also keep people from remembering that the GOP lost the midterms by 8 points and they lost in Wisconsin, etc. etc.
It also keep people from remembering that the GOP lost the midterms by 8 points and they lost in Wisconsin, etc. etc.
16/ Panicked tweets like that one keep people from remembering that the GOP have not only been steadily losing elections, they're losing support.
It (1) advances a narrative that helps Trump and (2) moves people out of the world of facts into myth.
It (1) advances a narrative that helps Trump and (2) moves people out of the world of facts into myth.
17/ Consider this: Thomas Rid, an expert in Russian disinformation tactics, said that the extent of Russia’s interference in the 2016 election was “designed to be overestimated.”
The desire to be overestimated makes sense when you think of this from gangster mentality.
The desire to be overestimated makes sense when you think of this from gangster mentality.
18/ If people overestimate you, if they think you are more powerful than you are. Your supporters will fall more quickly in line. You enemies will give up and despair.
At best, this tweet is based on selected facts (select a few, ignore others)
At best, this tweet is based on selected facts (select a few, ignore others)
19/ It's dangerous to underestimate Trump by assuming that he's just stupid and crazy.
It's equally dangerous to overestimate him.
If I were Trump and wanted to destroy democracy and install a leadership cult, I'd try to goad the Democrats into fighting like Republicans. . .
It's equally dangerous to overestimate him.
If I were Trump and wanted to destroy democracy and install a leadership cult, I'd try to goad the Democrats into fighting like Republicans. . .
20/ I'd also try to persuade them that I'm winning so they should just melt down.
On the other hand, if I wanted to save Democracy I'd tell everyone to work on getting their absentee ballots.
Winning in Nov. will not solve all of our problems, but it's a necessary first step.
On the other hand, if I wanted to save Democracy I'd tell everyone to work on getting their absentee ballots.
Winning in Nov. will not solve all of our problems, but it's a necessary first step.
This is the way a rule of law person thinks.
Precisely.
I was shocked by how many of my long time followers were 100% persuaded after the Flynn thing that Trump was invincible and all would be lost.
Even people who KNOW he's a con man thought this. People who know his side lost in Wisconsin.
I was shocked by how many of my long time followers were 100% persuaded after the Flynn thing that Trump was invincible and all would be lost.
Even people who KNOW he's a con man thought this. People who know his side lost in Wisconsin.
In fact, you gave me a better title for this thread. "Faking Invincibility"
It's exactly what the conman is doing.
I think I'll use that when I put it on my blog (including and giving credit to Jay.)
Warning: Your comments may end up in my blog post.
It's exactly what the conman is doing.
I think I'll use that when I put it on my blog (including and giving credit to Jay.)
Warning: Your comments may end up in my blog post.
Here are two phrases I'd like to ban.
First: "I sure hope you're right and the election isn't stolen."
When someone says, "I sure hope . . " I hear is passivity and even privilege. "I hope lots of people are out there working on this."
The real danger is voter suppression. . .
First: "I sure hope you're right and the election isn't stolen."
When someone says, "I sure hope . . " I hear is passivity and even privilege. "I hope lots of people are out there working on this."
The real danger is voter suppression. . .
. . .people are persuaded not to vote, or dissuaded from voting. Active Measures in 2016 was mostly about suppressing the vote, persuading people there was no point in voting, HRC was just as bad.
Stacy Abrams formed Fair Fight to fight voter suppression.
fairfight.com
Stacy Abrams formed Fair Fight to fight voter suppression.
fairfight.com
There are groups out there working to fight voter suppression. We shouldn't be "hoping." We should be "working."
The other "logic" I'd like to debunk is: "Trump is acting like he knows he's going to win. So he must know he can fix the election. So he must know the fix is in."
The other "logic" I'd like to debunk is: "Trump is acting like he knows he's going to win. So he must know he can fix the election. So he must know the fix is in."
If the fix was in, why didn't he fix the midterms, or the recent Wisconsin election, or the other elections the GOP lost in the past 4 years?
If the fix was in, what was the point of Operation Ukraine Shakedown (which failed, by the way.) Had it succeeded. . .
If the fix was in, what was the point of Operation Ukraine Shakedown (which failed, by the way.) Had it succeeded. . .
. . . we'd all believe that Ukraine decided on its own to open an investigation into the Bidens, which would have given the false narrative credibility.
Operation Ukraine Shakedown was launched shortly after the GOP lost the midterms in 2018, because the writing was on the wall.
Operation Ukraine Shakedown was launched shortly after the GOP lost the midterms in 2018, because the writing was on the wall.
Of course the GOP will try every trick in the book in November.
But why would the tricks work in 2020 if they didn't work in 2017, 2018, or 2019?
The tricks won't work if everyone does their part.
Rant over. (That was quite a rant!)
Oh, and yes, I had a lovely Mother's Day.
But why would the tricks work in 2020 if they didn't work in 2017, 2018, or 2019?
The tricks won't work if everyone does their part.
Rant over. (That was quite a rant!)
Oh, and yes, I had a lovely Mother's Day.
This is called a "what-if" rabbit hole.
Please see my FAQs for more about "what-if" rabbit holes.
If you take people down one, there is a penance: You must register 10 new voters (it used to be 20, but it's hard to register new voters in a pandemic, so I reduced the penance.)
Please see my FAQs for more about "what-if" rabbit holes.
If you take people down one, there is a penance: You must register 10 new voters (it used to be 20, but it's hard to register new voters in a pandemic, so I reduced the penance.)
