So the age of systemic crisis is upon us. Covid is *everywhere*. Economic fragility is *everywhere*. It's just how things are.
The "good times" ended in 2008, and everything since then has been on credit: vast bailouts to preserve social structure, after capital went bankrupt.
The "good times" ended in 2008, and everything since then has been on credit: vast bailouts to preserve social structure, after capital went bankrupt.
Rather than flushing the elites down the toilet when they blew out the global economy at the casino, the governments bailed them out *using your future tax dollars*.
That's where the bailouts came from: future tax revenues. And billionaires pay micro taxes, generally speaking.
That's where the bailouts came from: future tax revenues. And billionaires pay micro taxes, generally speaking.
The "extend and pretend" model was slowly degrading, but covid is a potentially *fatal* system shock. Trump's dismantling of the Washington Consensus is a "back of the ambulance" heart transplant attempt conducted by somebody deluded enough to think it might work.
It just can't.
It just can't.
If we're not going back to the old world, because most of the airlines are bankrupt, and a lot of large companies cannot be profitable, what happens next?
Bankruptcies and repricing of the economy is one option.
The other is authoritarian corporate socialism.
Weigh carefully.
Bankruptcies and repricing of the economy is one option.
The other is authoritarian corporate socialism.
Weigh carefully.
So let's talk winners and losers: utter, abject losers first. Changemakers, social enterprises, feel-good California pumped up VCs, all forms of positivity-focussed bullshit artist fake gurus & some real ones.
That whole "better and better in every way" mindset is build on lies.
That whole "better and better in every way" mindset is build on lies.
Losers: the UN, multilateralism, the post-WW2 consensus, Japan, South Korea, and all the other folks in China's shadow as the US implodes. Fortunately the Chinese have been in a reasonable mood so far: good job, because their regime is hanging by a thread too. EU loses bigly.
In short, all the global systems engineering people who've been trying to build a global system without clean-sweep first are standing right in the path of the rampaging torrent.
And the "consciousness will save us" department just *did not meditate enough* so produced no Gandhi
And the "consciousness will save us" department just *did not meditate enough* so produced no Gandhi
A Californian Gandhi who started working in about 1985 might have just about implemented the vision of the 1960s, but decentralized nature of the hippie movement - many shitty little gurus from 5000 traditions instead of One Really Big One, while admirably bullet-resistant, fails
Now let's talk about winners: some of the rich, cash long, under-leveraged, will buy up huge tracts of stuff for almost no money. Half that stuff will then become worthless, chucking them out of their castles. The other half will become the new Rothschilds, liquidity allocators.
Other winners: The Pentagon, unless they *really* screw the pooch in some unthinkably spectacular way (and you've gotta know it's possible) because they're the last functional arm of the American state
My prediction is the Democrats will dump Biden and run a retired general next
My prediction is the Democrats will dump Biden and run a retired general next
The Democrats have been threatening to run a general for *ages* - Wesley Clark en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wesley_Cl… is a little old, but there's en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Pet… en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_R._A… and enough others it's been called as a problem warontherocks.com/2016/09/how-to… these guys will clean up.
The Democrats have been threatening to run a general for *ages*: Wesley Clark en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wesley_Cl… is a little old, but there's en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Pet… en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_R._A… and enough others it's been called as a problem warontherocks.com/2016/09/how-to… they will really clean up
Edge cases: Amazon, Wal-mart, Google, Facebook.
They think they're winning: do they get nationalized, either officially, or by declaring them essential, drowning in them in red tape, and turning them into Boeing or Ford: government departments in all but name and pensions.
They think they're winning: do they get nationalized, either officially, or by declaring them essential, drowning in them in red tape, and turning them into Boeing or Ford: government departments in all but name and pensions.
Now, what should individuals do.
I have good news, but 1st I have worse news.
If you are fragile, you are screwed. Expensive medical issues, vast student debt, old age and ill health?
Society is turning *nasty* and resources will go to those with more perceived social upside.
I have good news, but 1st I have worse news.
If you are fragile, you are screwed. Expensive medical issues, vast student debt, old age and ill health?
Society is turning *nasty* and resources will go to those with more perceived social upside.
About the only thing the screwed can do is band together into a vast, volatile, screaming unified mass, a sort of labour union of the fragile. No infighting on gender and race, a purely economic war line on health insurers, government health spending, pensions, housing and so on.
This to be organized not as a political party: in fact it should look like Act Up: a bunch of super obnoxious HIV activists who (correctly) perceived themselves as having little to lose.
This is 2020. How bad do you think this mess is by 2024?
PANIC NOW
google.com/search?q=act+u…
This is 2020. How bad do you think this mess is by 2024?
PANIC NOW
google.com/search?q=act+u…
Now, on the young. They divide into the pampered "shame is my weapon of choice" culture warriors, and the flat out "I will cut your eyes out for what you have done to this world" environmental panzer battalions.
Those battalions will hit on the way down.
Those battalions will hit on the way down.
All those sociopathic environmental terrorists in waiting couldn't really hope to hit the system when it was strong, so they've been sitting on their hands since the unabomber.
But can you *imagine* what happened in their black little hearts when oil prices went negative? MY MY!
But can you *imagine* what happened in their black little hearts when oil prices went negative? MY MY!
So I'd be expecting flipper-wearing Earth Firsters to start dynamiting oil terminals while they're still empty, before the economy reboots.
They have essentially nothing to fear from covid. They have everything to fear from oil.
How stable is Saudi Arabia, by the way? Thoughts?
They have essentially nothing to fear from covid. They have everything to fear from oil.
How stable is Saudi Arabia, by the way? Thoughts?
So I'd be expecting flipper-wearing Earth Firsters to start dynamiting oil terminals while they're still empty, before the economy reboots.
They have essentially nothing to fear from covid. They have EVERYTHING to fear from oil.
How stable is Saudi Arabia, by the way? Thoughts?
They have essentially nothing to fear from covid. They have EVERYTHING to fear from oil.
How stable is Saudi Arabia, by the way? Thoughts?
All those sociopathic environmental terrorists in waiting couldn't really hope to hit the system when it was strong, so they've been sitting on their hands since the Unabomber.
But can you *imagine* what happened in their black little hearts when oil prices went negative? MY MY!
But can you *imagine* what happened in their black little hearts when oil prices went negative? MY MY!
Now let's talk about the Chinese. Tiny little army. Tiny. Could probably take India in a straight fight, but both countries would lose half their population in the process.
America could flash China off the face of the planet in a weekend.
If they could find the remote control.
America could flash China off the face of the planet in a weekend.
If they could find the remote control.
Nothing is more dangerous than a collapsing nuclear empire. One little face off and it's either "take whatever terms the Americans offer you to avoid a nuclear confrontation" or fight the skirmish and pray to god they do not escalate.
China has to wait this out. BUT THEY CAN'T.
China has to wait this out. BUT THEY CAN'T.
Nothing is more dangerous than a collapsing nuclear empire. One little face off and it's either "take whatever terms the Americans offer you to avoid a nuclear confrontation" or fight the skirmish and pray to god they do not escalate.
China HAS to wait this out. BUT THEY CAN'T.
China HAS to wait this out. BUT THEY CAN'T.
China can't wait it out, because of global warming.
They're entirely dependent on the global economy to feed their enormous population.
Can they squeeze Africa had enough to feed them? Probably not now with the bloody locust plagues.
Who did I hear talking about a rice crisis?
They're entirely dependent on the global economy to feed their enormous population.
Can they squeeze Africa had enough to feed them? Probably not now with the bloody locust plagues.
Who did I hear talking about a rice crisis?
So here's my prediction: it's China, Russia and Europe against America, with climate as the pretext, but really a desire to throw off the WW2 era global hegemon and make their own ways into the future.
A new science-based multilateralism, kicking in after Trump defunds the UN.
A new science-based multilateralism, kicking in after Trump defunds the UN.
Roll out a new global economic backbone - carbon-tracking / carbon-taxing payment infrastructure.
Gut the tax havens, and offer low tax rates for global corporations to pay taxes directly to this new international body: carbon sin taxes, in exchange for access to tax shelters.
Gut the tax havens, and offer low tax rates for global corporations to pay taxes directly to this new international body: carbon sin taxes, in exchange for access to tax shelters.
I realize this sounds completely off the wall. NEARLY EVERYTHING SAID IN 1935 ABOUT 1950 WAS WRONG.
Once the world makes up its mind that an era is over, the invisible pinions which move the world shift, and this is the time we are now in.
History is afoot.
Once the world makes up its mind that an era is over, the invisible pinions which move the world shift, and this is the time we are now in.
History is afoot.
What I want to do here is severely break your frame.
I don't know exactly how this plays out, I don't know what happens to the global economy. But these are the *kinds* of unthinkable changes we need to start working on understanding how to react to. It's a severely weird time.
I don't know exactly how this plays out, I don't know what happens to the global economy. But these are the *kinds* of unthinkable changes we need to start working on understanding how to react to. It's a severely weird time.
Six weeks ago, my covid estimate was 1% fatal and a million American excess deaths. I took that shot on the data available right back at the beginning of this mess.
I'm not bad at predicting the inevitable. You just DON'T IGNORE WHAT REALITY CLEARLY SAYS
I'm not bad at predicting the inevitable. You just DON'T IGNORE WHAT REALITY CLEARLY SAYS
Crappy threading error: that's important. Do not forget that.
Final note: START THINKING FOR YOURSELF.
The idiot media got completely complacent: they were brought to heel like hounds when they were gagged in the run-up to the Iraq war, and most of the spine the press had went into retirement, leaving the newspapers run by hobgoblins.
The idiot media got completely complacent: they were brought to heel like hounds when they were gagged in the run-up to the Iraq war, and most of the spine the press had went into retirement, leaving the newspapers run by hobgoblins.
You cannot rely on the press to make meaning for you any more. You have to ask, for yourself, *where does my food come from?* My energy? My wealth? Who will care for me if I get sick?
resiliencemaps.org is a way to plan and see those key political questions. Adjust focus.
resiliencemaps.org is a way to plan and see those key political questions. Adjust focus.
