Thread by @MikeOtsuka

The high number of deaths of London bus drivers is of a piece with other evidence that prolonged exposure in enclosed spaces to someone infected w/ coronavirus is unsafe. 2 metre social distancing won't make buses, the tube, classrooms, or shared offices safe. 1/10

First, here's the other evidence, from US CDC papers about a restaurant & a call centre & further studies involving a church, indoor sporting event, etc. 2/10
erinbromage.com/post/the-risks…

It's alarming that the rate of coronavirus death among London bus drivers is 16 times the death rate of NHS workers. 3/10
ft.com/content/bae971…

Bus drivers also account for the vast majority of coronavirus deaths among all London transport workers: 28 of 37. 4/10
nytimes.com/2020/05/02/wor…

This high death rate suggests that airborne coronavirus infection will be hard to avoid in journeys on public transport, or in other enclosed spaces where people remain for more than a brief period of time. 5/10

London bus drivers sit in enclosed cab, behind a plastic screen with holes👇. They can also ventilate their cab by opening their window. Passengers don't generally sit or stand close to them for a prolonged period of time. 6/10

So their <2 metre exposure to an infected passenger will typically have been for a very brief period, when the passenger boards, taps the yellow circle & proceeds to a seat more than 2 metres away. 7/10

Brief exposures of <2 metres, plus prolonged exposure to the same air that passengers breath, were sufficient to give rise to a high rate of infection. This casts doubt on the efficacy of a policy of 2 metre social distancing on public transport. 8/10

And we already have other evidence (see 2/) that, if you're in the same (or connected via air conditioning) enclosed space as someone who is infected for an extended period of time, your risk of infection is high even if you're much more than 2 metres away. 9/10

So we'll need much more than 2 metre social distancing to make indoor spaces where we spend prolonged periods of time safe. This applies to public transport, workplaces, classrooms, restaurants, bars, cinemas & places of worship. 10/10

https://twitter.com/DailyMirror/status/1259746996027523078

This tweet suggests that good PPE accounts for the much lower (see 3/10) death rate among NHS workers.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1259774238564782080

ONS data released today on rates of death from covid-19 by occupation: doctors, nurses & other healthcare workers = "10.2 deaths per 100,000 males (43 deaths) and 4.8 deaths per 100,000 females (63 deaths)", which is not statistically different from general population. 1/

"Men and women working in social care, a group including care workers and home carers, both had significantly raised rates of death involving COVID-19, with rates of 23.4 deaths per 100,000 males (45 deaths) and 9.6 deaths per 100,000 females (86 deaths)." 2/

"Other occupations with significantly higher rates include bus and coach drivers, with 26.4 deaths per 100,000 males (29 deaths)." (No rate reported for bus & coach drivers who are women.) 3/

👇. 4/4 Source: ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

.@RKWinvisibleman above ONS figures indicate that death rate among male bus drivers is about 2.5 times the death rate among health care workers. That's hard to reconcile with your 16 times figure👇re NHS workers.

https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuka/status/1259727507357663232

Seoul opens windows on air conditioned buses to reduce risk of coronavirus transmission. (Also requires fask masks on subways.)

The 'Routemaster' London buses that Boris Johnson reintroduced when mayor are notorious for their lack of ventilation, even after they were retrofitted with windows that can open (which allow for far less intake of air from the outside than the windows on the older buses).

Govt's Covid-19 guidance for workplace offices👇stresses significance of "2m social distancing wherever possible". 1/
gov.uk/guidance/worki…

But, as @ErinBromage notes in post to which I link in 2/10 above, such advice is inappropriate for such settings. Key passage👇. 2/2

Long, well-researched piece on risks of virus transmission on airplanes:
washingtonpost.com/local/traffica…

.@ucu members check your inbox for UCU Covid-19 survey. 1/

https://twitter.com/ucu/status/1260270037644050432

Here's my response to a key question👇. 2/2

.@BBCr4today piece on plans by gyms to re-open w/ 2 metre social distancing. In addition to problems identified above w enclosed spaces, gyms provide a further problem of transmission via heavy breathing. See this👇from @ErinBromage's blog post in 2/10 above.

UK govt's one-size-fits-all application of 2 metre social distancing to parks, garden centres, open plan offices, classroom, the tube & gyms undermines their credibility. 2 metres is not some universal magic barrier. Doesn't work like this👇.

See ONS graph of "exposure to generic disease & physical proximity to others" of bus drivers, relative to nurses & care workers. 1/
ons.gov.uk/employmentandl…

Note that the level of exposure of primary & nursery school teachers is rates as slightly higher than that of bus drivers. 2/

This is of relevance to the current debate over whether it's safe to re-open schools in June. See also this thread👇on the safety of classroom teachers & students from Covid-19 infection. 3/3

https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuka/status/1261591169844350983