Thread by @PaulDoroshenko

I suspect people don’t know what’s coming.
It you look at photos of any city from pre WWI you’ll see all sorts of businesses. You’ll also notice that none of them exist anymore. There are reasons.
Most businesses don’t survive their first owner. They had the heart and motivation.

The courageous entrepreneurs who start businesses do the work of three employees. They often contribute far beyond what they extract from the business. It is their drive that keeps it going. Without them, the business folds or falls in decline. Employees don’t often see it.

Very successful businesses, like Army & Navy, could very well succeed but for the unmotivated inheritors who fail to maintain the drive of the original visionary. Canadian Tire has been very smart in this regard. Franchisees can’t gift or sell their store to a family member.

After the depression the streets looked very different. Many established businesses failed. After WWII new entrepreneurs began to step in but that took time. There was a need for capital and those key people with vision. Capital evaporates in an economic downturn. It just does.

I suspect many people think the economy will bounce back. They are mistaken. It has to do with a feature of competition.
Everyone competes. Every business runs tight unless they have a monopoly or virtual monopoly (Google, Apple) so they don’t have cash to weather a storm.

Because they’re competing with the other shop across the street, they cut prices to keep their share of the market. And they often operate while servicing debt. Most businesses need to keep all of the balls in the air just to survive. That time is over.

The balls don’t bounce. Businesses that can’t service their debt (most mid-size businesses) will fail. Small businesses with no cushion (most small businesses) will fail.
Will there be jobs to go back to? Well, that’s a question with a sad answer.

The entrepreneurs have no capital. Their capital is gone. They can’t start new businesses. A handful will survive but with drastically reduced ability to invest. They will suffer in survival mode.
So will there be any jobs?

I give credit to the federal government and the B.C. government for their attempts to limit the damage. Sadly, we are in for a long period of high unemployment and, I suspect, stagflation.
I suspect most people are counting on a bounce back. It’s not coming.
Sorry.

In 25 years the businesses on the street will be completely different. Many of those once apparently solid companies will fail within the next 12 months. Expect nothing but grim news.
If you have a job, cherish it. If you have a secure government job, keep it.

The German finance minister killed himself a few weeks ago. He could see what was coming.
It’s important to keep in mind that we’re all in this together. If you’re proud, put pride aside. If you’re feeling without options, know we all feel the same. There is no shame in failure.

We must (this is an imperative) pick ourselves up and keep going. We owe that to ourselves, our families and our fellow occupant of planet earth.
Hold on. Stay strong. Better days will come and they’re worth living for.