Thread by @davidboxenhorn

Quarantine Regions, thread

1. To head off future pandemics, we should divide the world into quarantine regions, now. These can be likened to the compartments of a submarine. People understand that in case of a leak, you can close off one compartment and save the whole ship

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1259458372769918976

2. Similarly, we can close down a quarantine region, and save the rest of the world. Or a quarantine region can close itself down, and save itself *from* the world

3. For small countries, the quarantine region can be the whole country. But larger countries should have sub-regions. In the United States, quarantine regions should be states, though small states can combine into a single region, and large states should be subdivided

4. Looking out across the world, it looks like the maximum effective size for a region is about 20 million people. All non-tropical counties that have successfully dealt with the pandemic, with minimal casualties, have been smaller than this

5. Australia is the exception that proves the rule, since they restricted interstate travel

6. We should set up these quarantine regions *now*, so that we don't have to debate the policy in the midst of a pandemic attack. We should explain and discuss the need for them before they are necessary

7. We should point out that quarantine regions are minimally invasive of our liberties, since they preserve the freedoms of people in regions that are not effected. They are also minimally invasive of effected regions, if policy is made locally, and not imposed from above

8. Preparations should include setting up boundaries of quarantine regions, and enforcement mechanisms. Countries already restrict travel at their boundaries, so it's easy to enforce travel restrictions there, but non-country-level boundaries need to be prepared

9. Quarantine-region governance mechanisms need to be set up, with proper democratic oversight, and epidemiological input