THE HUGE QUESTION NEXT FOR THE U.S. LABOR MARKET
In today's @markets newsletter, I wrote about Friday's Jobs Report, and what to start watching closely. How bad will layoffs get among white collar workers, for whom UI fails to replace their income bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
In today's @markets newsletter, I wrote about Friday's Jobs Report, and what to start watching closely. How bad will layoffs get among white collar workers, for whom UI fails to replace their income bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
@markets Right now we have this huge disconnect, where an explosion of layoffs hasn't necessarily resulted in a huge household income collapse, due to the fact that layoffs have been so heavily concentrated among lower-paid service industry workers while UI has been expanded.
That's not to say there haven't been layoffs higher up the income ladder. There have been many.
But think about some of the larger corporate actions we've seen announced.
Skewed towards unprofitable companies that overhired (AirBNB) or companies troubled pre-crisis (eg Boeing)
But think about some of the larger corporate actions we've seen announced.
Skewed towards unprofitable companies that overhired (AirBNB) or companies troubled pre-crisis (eg Boeing)
Meanwhile, even the companies that had been booming for the most part (pre-crisis) we've seen hiring slowdowns (e.g. Google).
But so far we haven't seen many layoff announcements among companies that were perceived to be doing just fine pre-crisis.
But so far we haven't seen many layoff announcements among companies that were perceived to be doing just fine pre-crisis.
If these pickup, this will blow a hole in household income that's not easily replaced by what Congress has done already.
The hope is that between the "reopening", the expanded UI, the actions form the Fed, and a 4th round of relief money, we see enough a positive impulse to the economy, and layoffs don't continue to metastasize. Companies decide to hire back and hold onto their workers.
But time is of the essence here. If people start pushing back their mental estimates for when things return to normal, and DC remains in "wait and see" mode on spending more money, it gets harder and harder to put the toothpaste back in the tube, so to speak.
So this is the dynamic to watch.
Do companies that were in fine health pre-crisis, and whose businesses are not directly related to the shutdowns, start to shed workers?
Will be tracking it. In the meantime, subscribe to the newsletter here. link.mail.bloombergbusiness.com/join/4wm/marke…
Do companies that were in fine health pre-crisis, and whose businesses are not directly related to the shutdowns, start to shed workers?
Will be tracking it. In the meantime, subscribe to the newsletter here. link.mail.bloombergbusiness.com/join/4wm/marke…
Addendum. Great chart from Luke here showing how much less severe the layoffs have been so far for people who have a college degree
And see this chart from @JeffAGreen on the layoff divide between industries where WFH is possible/impossible
