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Americans didn't wait for governors to tell them to stay home.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/ameri…

In every state, the majority of the increase in home lockdowns happened before the governor issued a stay-at-home order.
Between March 9 and March 12:

- the Dow plunged
- Italy locked down
- the NBA canceled its season
- the Hanks' were positively diagnosed
- and media coverage skyrocketed

The American lockdown wasn't state-issued. It was information-based.
I see three factors here: viral contagion, social contagion, and law. In March, all three moved in one direction: the virus spread, fear + self-lockdowns spread, then govs issued orders.

Going forward, I think things will be much more disorganized.
What I mean by "more disorganized": In some states, governors will "reopen" the economy, while the virus keeps spreading.



In some places, ending lockdown laws won't change ppl's behavior. In other states, the public will defy lockdown orders ...
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Derek Thompson
@DKThomp
Now that's three CDC studies—from a Chinese restaurant, a Korean call center, and an American choir practice—all finding that talking, laughing, singing in close quarters, in unventilated interiors, for many hours, is the perfect storm for a COVID super-spreader event.
The Chinese study
wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26…

Finding: Three Guangzhou families sitting in direct path of AC airflow get sick from droplet transmission.

Practical advice: Increase distance between tables in restaurants, increase ventilation, maybe move diners outside.
The Korean study
wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26…

Finding: Outbreak in Korean call center concentrated on one side of 11th floor "despite interaction btw workers on different floors in the elevators"

Practical advice: risk = exposure X time; shared air more risky than shared surfaces
Read 6 tweets
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Derek Thompson
@DKThomp
Nashville is under "stay-at-home" orders. Stockholm is "open for business."

But per Apple data, iPhone users in these cities have nearly the exact same adjustment in driving, walking, and transit use
I don't want to put too much weight on this Apple data, because it's an approximate aggregation, and there are bound to be problems with cross-country comparisons.

But it's in keeping with news reports that Swedish restaurants (etc) are de jure open, but de facto empty.
The public is a co-partner in the opening and closing of the economy.

People didn't need lockdowns to stop going to restaurants. They won't go back to bars just because the doors are open. (And, conversely, some ppl can break--and are breaking--stay-at-home orders.)
Read 4 tweets
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Derek Thompson
@DKThomp
Two CDC studies—from a restaurant, and a call center—suggest transmission from talking, laughing, breathing around other ppl in a closed space for hours is much more important for transmission than surfaces.

wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26…
wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26…

(via @zeynep)
Some plausible implications, if these findings are true:

1. It's probably safe to open the parks.
2. Packed restaurants and bars are going to be verboten for a while.
3. Meetings in small conference rooms were always deadly, but now they can literally kill you.
4. The Seinfeld episode about close talkers is now a horror short
Read 3 tweets

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