We aren’t returning to the 2019 status quo in the US if the pandemic lasts 12-18 months or more.
Economics of many industries can’t survive a year of depressed revenue. College, airlines, theaters, retail, restaurants, so much will change.
Worth formulating a precise bet.
Economics of many industries can’t survive a year of depressed revenue. College, airlines, theaters, retail, restaurants, so much will change.
Worth formulating a precise bet.
I think The Atlantic is doing a good job of thinking through the possible implications.
Key concept: this is not a passing storm. It’s probably the most documented global event in human history and the most important event since World War 2.
theatlantic.com/category/uncha…
Key concept: this is not a passing storm. It’s probably the most documented global event in human history and the most important event since World War 2.
theatlantic.com/category/uncha…
Btw, @NateSilver538 is better than virtually every pundit because he makes quantitative predictions that he’s accountable to, like a tech investment record.
But we need a fast technological breakthrough just to get back to status quo. Part of why it’s an improbable outcome.
But we need a fast technological breakthrough just to get back to status quo. Part of why it’s an improbable outcome.
The base rate point of view is that things won’t change. In the context of the pandemic, I call this Just-the-Spanish-Flu.
The 2019 US economy was crucially albeit implicitly premised on the absence of serious infectious disease. The 1918 economy was not.
The 2019 US economy was crucially albeit implicitly premised on the absence of serious infectious disease. The 1918 economy was not.
