It is often impossible to reach a consensus in any debate about coronavirus because some look at confirmed cases, and some look at testing (and do not believe the trend in confirmed cases means anything).
Below, an attempt to bridge the gap in one indicator (Texas an example)...
Below, an attempt to bridge the gap in one indicator (Texas an example)...
Here is the 'raw' Texas picture, taken from the @ExanteData daily feed. It shows that the 7-day moving average of daily new cases is trending higher.
But is that just due to testing?
But is that just due to testing?
Here is another way of looking at the data. We have deflated the daily new cases count with the growth in testing (like you deflate nominal GDP with a price deflator / inflation). Then the trend looks stable in the last 2-3 weeks (note the bars are 7-day MAs here)
You have to look at new cases and testing information together; and perhaps using 'deflated' new cases is one way to merge the information from both sources in one metric that you can visually inspect quickly (for a lot of states).
