Over the last few weeks, the gold dynamics have shifted and the thread below shows a few of the key charts we have published to institutions via @ExanteData

A new regime, with new risks for sure On October 16, we highlighted this chart in a report called: "Gold: A new phase of aggressive retail accumulation"

It shows how in the 2022-2024 (orange dots) the gold rally happened with much retail participation (proxied w ETF flow)

and it shows how the recent returns (Sep and up to Oct 16, 2025) were accompanied by extreme retail involvement.

Last week, we hosted a call for @ExanteData clients on the ongoing asset allocation shift and (very negative) implications for the dollar.

Here I am just posting the opening slides from the call, that illustrates that there is nothing normal about the current regime...

short THREAD It is highly unusual for the bond market to sell off at the same time as equities are tanking and short-end yields are going down. But this is what we have seen in April, and it is getting worse this week...

Here are some basic observations about why the current US tariff policy plans are probably the absolute worst case scenario for US growth...

The cumulative tax effects are very large, and it is a complex system, hard to administer and entailing costly uncertainty.

THREAD First,

Hitting the most integrated cross-border supply chains, at the core of US manufacturing, will entail a severe hit too US growth.

The tax effect of USMCA tariffs alone are > $200bn

(USCMA tariffs = ‘own goal’)

Nvidia $NVDA is hardly a cheap stock. But you often hear the comparison to Cisco $CSCO in the bubble. Is that fair?dot.com Here are the (most) basic Cisco stats from 1997-2002.

The stock peaked in 2002 at 23 x Revenue
- margin was 64%
- rev. growth was 55%

For those thinking that the inflation experiences in the 1970s and the 1980s are instructive to this cycle...

Just a few background charts...

(mini-THREAD I guess) The US economy is way more open. Hence, a lot of price dynamics are a function of the global economy, not just what is happening at home

imports to GDP were just 5% in the early 1970s, for example. Now >15% of GDP...

Everybody knows the details of US used car prices, the technicalities of the rent calculation, and even the oddities around obscure CPI components such as medical services...

but perhaps it is better to look at the big picture (global trends and China)...

- just a few of charts The trend in global core inflation is almost back to normal (chart above)

And when you look at China, you think; should we not worry about deflation?

Headline CPI is as negative as in the covid shock, and almost as negative as in the CFC shock

The higher for longer narrative is looking increasingly stale

(a few big picture charts) First, the global trend in core inflation momentum is very clear. The worst is certainly behind us...

I spoke this weekend at the Euro conference hosted by @AlbertoBagnai in Pescara, Italy (along with @EuroBriefing @borghi_claudio and others)

A few key points from my speech... The Euro-crisis climaxed about 10-years ago, and the challenges for the Eurozone have been hotly debated since

I have been travelling, so only commenting on the terrible Chinese FDI data with a few days delay, even if it one important topic I care a lot about

Thread... First, net FDI flows (counting both inflows and outflows) are now sharply negative, and it is the Chinese liabilities (the investment by foreigners into China, that is driving the swing)

- $66bn now
vs
+$100bn in Q1 2022

MASSIVE swing

I have been pretty vocal over the past few quarters about how bad the trend in Chinese foreign direct investment was.

But the Q2 data was EVEN WORSE than I expected. Global corporates have simply stopped investing in China...

(The liabilities, blue bars, are the inflows) Foreign investors only put about $5bn of fresh capital into China in the form of FDI in Q2, the lowest since the data series began back in the 1990s, when China was a much much smaller economy

In 2021, we saw close to $100bn per quarter!

I spoke yesterday, at the NY Fed's "Dollar Conference"

Here are five observations from the conference

THREAD First,

There is a lot of focus on the declining USD share of global reserves.

But the COFER data does not include derivatives, and this will mean that USD is understated.

@B_Eichengreen agreed with this point (but cautioned that good data is missing).

I will be speaking at the NY Fed "Dollar Conference" today.

And as background for the big de-dollarization debate, this simple chart is worth keeping in mind.

Where is the USD trading vs its 30-year history?

$ Nominal Effective Exchange rate (NEER) in 96th percentile... And here is the same data in time-series format for the Nominal Effective rate (NEER)

We will know more, likely around the Asian open, about what is next for the US banking system.

What is next for First Republic (FRC)? Does it matter for the rest of the banking system? Does it matter for the Fed?

= THREAD First Republic ($FRC) traded down >40% in normal trading hours, and dropped notably further in the after-hours on Friday on expectations that receivership is imminent.

The stock is down 98% on the year
The market cap down to around $400 million

It is now a month ago, since we observed dramatic pressure on European banking stocks, with Deutsche Bank especially in focus (next in line after CS...)

A lot has changed, and it is a good time to take stock of the situation in European banking/economy

= THREAD On March 25, I commented about how unusual the pressure on Deutsche Bank was (in that it was devoid of any real catalyst), with the big move happening March 23-24.

https://twitter.com/jnordvig/status/1639659676466913281

Money growth has turned sharply negative in major economies, and M1 is now contracting at a pace of around 10% annualized in the Eurozone.

But how dramatic the trend looks like, depends a lot on what specific definition you use.

(THREAD) You can see in the charts above that M1 is moving much more than M3. This is because M1 is focussed on sight deposits, while broader money (M2 and M3) includes other bank liabilities, importantly savings deposits.

[ECB definitions shown]

Does this look like a reserve currency to you?

Lots of talk about USD losing reserve currency status, and the CNY gaining it.

But NOBODY wants to own Chinese bonds... Since early 2022, foreigners have been selling CNY bonds almost every single month (with the exception of a tiny inflow in Dec 2022).

Total OUTFLOW from international investors since early 2022 is >$100bn...

Since there has been a lot of focus on tension in the European banking system, here is a quick update on what markets are saying now

(a few days makes a difference!)

= THREAD European bank stocks (proxied with SX7E index of 600 banks) dropped sharply on Thursday and Friday last week, on Deutsche Bank fears. But it has now fully recovered those losses in less than a week.

Here are some charts about how bad (or not bad) the situation is around European banks, after dramatic moves in specific names at the end of last week.

(use your own judgement)

THREAD First, Deutsche Bank stock (= white) has fallen sharply in March (-25% since the SVB shock)

But it is still mostly in the middle of the range of the last 5-years.

Broader European bank stocks (= yellow) have also fallen, but are in the upper part of the range since 2018

I have been following banking crisis for years...

But the latest price action is highly unusual

(the latest tension, with epicenter in Europe, is lacking an obvious catalyst, and seemingly happening very impulsively)

= THREAD As background:

Did PhD research about the 1998 Asian Crisis
Sat at Goldman Sachs' prop desk during 2008 crisis
Was at Bridgewater Associates in 2009
Followed the Euro-crisis as Head of Research for Nomura in 2010-2013 (and wrote the book "The Fall of the Euro" about it)

This is the clip from my interview @FerroTV and @lisaabramowicz1 on Monday morning. Believe it or not, I still stand by this message, even after more than 24 hours have passed!

exantedata.com/jens-nordvig-o… 1/ This is not 2008

A crisis rarely repeats itself, since policy makers have learnt that specific lesson (differences include capital positions, and asset mix and funding mix).

There is huge confusion about what the Fed balance sheet expansion last week means.

But not all balance sheet expansions are created equal

In QE, the Fed buys assets, and injects liquidity for the long-term, while impacting asset prices.

Last week was different...

https://twitter.com/GeneralTheorist/status/1637213375011725314

The balance sheet expansion last week was driven by actions of commercial banks; defensive action at the discount window, generating liquidity for those in need; but liquidity which may be very short-term in nature.