1. lots of graphs showing floating storage/oilonwater have popped on my timeline in last week. Problem is that they underestimate oilonwater and overestimate floating storage
The problem is they do not take into account the intentions of the seller of the crude oil #OOTT
2. They do not take into account correctly what is a distressed cargo.
A distressed cargo is a cargo that a seller intends to sell immediately but has not been able to. The seller has been forced to load the cargo but continues to try to sell.
3. Floating storage is the intention of loading oil on a boat and holding it for a period of time before selling. The cargo will be sold at some point in the future when the seller decides to put it in the market.
4. in other words floating storage is oil taken out of the market where as distressed cargoes remain in the market.
What it does is underestimates the amount of oil available market in the short term and overestimates the amount of oil in the future/longer term.
5. Much of the falling in floating storage is likely to have been distressed cargoes being sold rather than floating storage falling.
The whole situation is messed up because the terms that ship tracking uses are different from the actual intentions of the sellers.
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1. Short 🧵on what will be the most overhyped flop in the oil market.
The answer is the Trans Mountain Pipeline.
Canadians think this will have the effect of increasing demand for Canadian crude oil, putting up the differential and make Canadian producers more profitable.
2. There is significant problems in that idea.
Main one is it might create too much supply for demand. Here are the problems.
- The crude is very heavy has huge amounts of sulphur but worst of all most will have aTaN of between 1.6 and 2.2.
Few refineries can refine that
2. The problem with acidity is where it comes out in the refinery. That acidity number will increase as the crude is seperated. Because this is very heavy crude, the light crude it is blended with will not help disperse the acidity.
Remember Ukrainians are not reducing Russian revenues hugely at moment. More crude oil exported will balance less products.
- But it is doing medium/long term damage to Russian infrastructure at a time where all skilled workers are working in the military complex
2.
- being done at a time when refineries already under strain because of sanctions (quality of spare parts, catalysts, etc.)
- Russia does not have ability to import products in the quantity to replace lost refinery capacity. The Russian system is designed to export not import
3. Ukraine has been restrained against Russian oil and gas until lately
- Both gas and oil pipelines running through Ukraine carrying Russian hydrocarbons have been untouched
- Ukraine not used their aquatic drones against tankers (full or empty) unlike success against warships.
US refineries have shown US shale absorption has reached saturation levels. The same will happen outside US. Refineries can only handle a maximum volume before capacity restraints.
2. The capacity restriction is caused by the lightness (high API ) of shale. Shale contains much higher levels of Light ends than does an Arab light, urals and also a far lower amount of residue.
3. The throughput of a crude distillation column is not determined by the volume of crude coming in but rather by the maximum amount of products it can produce. Each product draw point has a maximum amount that can be produced.
2. Despite being the World’s largest oil producer the U.S. has such a paranoia over energy embargoes and what happened in the 1979s that a true discussion can never happen without that paranoia creeping in.
But the U.S. really needs to re-think how it uses its SPR.
3. That paranoia is seen with the release from the SPR during 2022. A potential loss of Russian oil and prices spiking to $120+ was not enough for many to release from the SPR. The paranoia is always that something worse will happen later. There is always the worry of the embargo
1 Short thread on something @crudegusher said in his video today
Average energy consumption of a BEV is about 0.32kWh per mile
Average distance driven in US per year is 13,476 miles. That 36.9miles per day
Therefore, an EV uses around 11.81KWh per day or 4,300 per year
2.
The Nvidia H100 AI GPU consumes 700w at peak power. More than a typical US Household.
At the typical 61% utilization point specified by NVidia that is 3,740kWh per year. That is nearly the same as an Electric Vehicle
Except you can fit 18 of these into a shoe box.
3.
NVidia expect to sell 2 million in the US alone. It means that NVDIA AI chips will require more power than the expected extra electricity demand from new EV sales in 2024.
Like most server chips performance increase will mean electricity demand will not fall too much.
1.
A quick thread on how european buyers use their Long Term Contract with saudi Arabia.
Saudi Long term Contracts in Europe are falling. European refiners see Saudi Arabia prices being way to high compared to the actual value of their crude oil.
2. there is a reason they are expensive and that is Saudi using it to limit demand for their crude during period where they are cutting production to try and force prices up.
But this means European refiners see Saudi as a less dependable supplier.
3. this suits Saudi as well as they can focus on the Far east markets.
For European's market structure becomes just as important as how much they can minimise the volume they take on the long term. This is where cheapness comes into play and dates of loading come into play.