1. lots of graphs showing floating storage/oilonwater have popped on my timeline in last week. Problem is that they underestimate oilonwater and overestimate floating storage
The problem is they do not take into account the intentions of the seller of the crude oil #OOTT
2. They do not take into account correctly what is a distressed cargo.
A distressed cargo is a cargo that a seller intends to sell immediately but has not been able to. The seller has been forced to load the cargo but continues to try to sell.
3. Floating storage is the intention of loading oil on a boat and holding it for a period of time before selling. The cargo will be sold at some point in the future when the seller decides to put it in the market.
4. in other words floating storage is oil taken out of the market where as distressed cargoes remain in the market.
What it does is underestimates the amount of oil available market in the short term and overestimates the amount of oil in the future/longer term.
5. Much of the falling in floating storage is likely to have been distressed cargoes being sold rather than floating storage falling.
The whole situation is messed up because the terms that ship tracking uses are different from the actual intentions of the sellers.
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1. Trumps whole idea for reducing inflation it seems is by reducing energy prices particularly oil.
But his policies towards oil are just ridiculous.
He wants to reduce oil and gasoline prices to reduce transport, farming costs, etc.
2. His idea is reducing costs through regulation. It then expects producers to produce more bringing down prices while maintaining the profit margin from before.
He is just going to run into shareholders telling companies to maintain production and generate more FCF
3.
- He puts tariffs on oil production.
- His tariffs see counter-tariffs on U.S. crude oil
- He wants to fill the SPR to the top. He will do so with crude oil the market does not want that is not imported and can only service a small number of refineries
The shale revolution has undoubtedly helped keep prices down over the last 15 years. its increase has helped balance the market.
However, it is the Canadian Oil sand sthat have actually had a much more pronounced effect and have allowed the US to use oil as a weapon
2. Shale is light sweet crude and what did it do. Well it menat that US imported less light sweet crude. But it has had the effect of flooding the Atlantic basin with cheap light sweet crude oil.
Oil sand son the other hand has been far more important.
3. Oil sands has helped shale because it allowed the US to reverse pipeline directions to send shale to USGC. Without oil sands, US would have needed to build many more pipelines to move shale south while moving heavier crudes north. thjose pipelines may have been keystone XL'd
1. Quick 🧵why you cannot run the same amount of light crude in a refinery that is designed to run medium or heavy crude. Why US need sCanadian and cant run US crud eoil.
The problem is the overhead system cannot take the volume of light ends that are produced.
2. It all starts in the pipework that takes the light ends from the distillation coilumn to the downstream secondary units.
The most important factor that this overhead pipework is designed to do is to minimise the pressure drop between the CDU and downstream
3. Now if you introdcue more lightends by running light sweet crude instead of heavy sour. There are more light ends than normal. To get the extra out of the column you need one of two things to happen
1. Why Trumps “drill Baby Drill” is actually not great for US crude oil producers.
I keep posting this graph and there is a reason why I do. It shows that demand for U.S. crude oil particularly light sweet crude oil is not growing. Actually in 2024 it is actually falling.
2. The reason it is all about crude oil quality and the ability of refineries to run it without compromising its throughput. It is all to do with the first important piece of equipment the crude distillation column.
3. When a refinery is designed it maximum throughput is designed using a base quality of crude oil. Much of the Med refineries are designed to run urals or Arab light crude oil or the blends that mimic them.
- Trumps “ Drill baby Drill” likely has little effect. U.S. production likely unaffected by either candidate too much. Any costs Trump saves producers will go to bottom line rather than huge increases in production
2.
- Any increase in US production would mean it has to be exported. But the market is already long light sweet crude especially in the Atlantic basin. So demand may just not be there either.
3. - Harris will look for a new JCPOA with Iran. Trump will likely increase sanctions but ask OPEC to cover.
- Harris likely to increase secondary sanctions regarding Russia. Trump likely removes them. Hates China benefitting. Would leave Atlantic Basin even longer.