ONS now recorded 46380 excess deaths by May first. Deaths are coming off but there are still going to have been many thousands since May first, we are certainly over 50k already, and it seems doubtful death rates will fully normalise before we reach 60k.
60000 deaths is 0.1% of the population. This means a sero-prevalence at 10% would lead to an IFR of 1%. In the last ten days we have had three pieces of information that make it likely the total attack rate closer to 5% than 10% in the UK, and consequently an IFR near 2%.
Firstly Patrick Vallence gave a preview of the UK ongoing serology study (due May 14th I believe): parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/78… look around 10:20-10:20. 10% in London 3-4% UK wide.
Then ONS released data on current prevalence, central tendency 0.25% currently infected. Under some plausible assumptions about how fast prevalence has grew and then declined post lockdown, most consistent with around 5-7% total attack rate. ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
Finally the FT has covered some research by IPSI today: ft.com/content/7c312d… which estimates: 
We are getting sub 10% prevalence and an IFR well over 1% in the UK it looks like now. I shouldn't have to remind you, but among the most informed followers of this IFR? > 1% has been the base case for a while now.
I was losing my zen about this on twitter a while ago: but if the sero-prevalence confirms this base case I will absolutely be doing victory laps and shaming those who were rude to me for saying this.
