My Authors
Read all threads
So on the oxford paper, the two main findings are this graph, where rho characterises the percentage of severe cases. (0.01 = 1%). Image
But the key is to characterise rho in terms of the more common IFR - the death rate among all infections, we see from the rhs here that deaths are only 0.12-0.016 of rho. Image
This means that rho=0.001, generating the FT headlines, corresponds to a true IFR aroudn 0.00014, or 0.014%, which is deeply implausible. Using the same IFR as the imperial paper (1%), rho would be 0.06, and only a small fraction are infected. Hard to read but maybe 10%.
Very bad reporting from the FT not to make clear that you can only get that level of infections by assuming an IFR much lower than current estimates.
To put it in perspective, italy has had 6k deaths, which is 0.01% of 60m, so that model would imply 100% of italians already infected......
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with Iron Economist

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!