Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France science.sciencemag.org/content/early/… @ScienceMagazine
"The overall probability of death among those infected (the Infec-tion Fatality Ratio, IFR) is 0.7% (95% CrI: 0.4–1.0), ranging from 0.001% in those under 20ya to 10.1% (95% CrI: 6.0–15.6) in those >80ya (Fig. 2D and table S2)."
"We find that the basic repro-ductive number R0 prior to the implementation of the lock-down was 2.90 (95% CrI: 2.80–2.99). The lockdown resulted in a 77% (95% CI: 76–78) reduction in transmission, with the reproduction number R dropping to 0.67 (95% CrI: 0.65–0.68)."
We forecast that by the 11 May 2020, 2.8 million (range: 1.8–4.7, when accounting for uncertainty in the probability of hospitalization given infection) people will have been in-fected, representing 4.4% (range: 2.8–7.2) of the French pop-ulation (Fig. 3E). 
Excellent table in the supplement:
Using the assumptions in this paper, full herd immunity in the U.S. would result in 1.39 million deaths. No adjustment for differences in baseline population health, just age and sex.
@threadreaderapp unroll
