Some good points here but also a lot of straw men.
Contra these claims, I have not seen many credible public health folks:
- Treating the IHME model as gospel (many have been highly critical)
- Predicting "mass death in GA by May" (source on this claim?)
- Ignoring uncertainty
Contra these claims, I have not seen many credible public health folks:
- Treating the IHME model as gospel (many have been highly critical)
- Predicting "mass death in GA by May" (source on this claim?)
- Ignoring uncertainty
Prominent public health voices *have* been saying that:
- Reopening without protections is a big risk
- Many people won't resume normal economic activity until they feel it's safe, regardless of govt orders
- Every model has limits
- Most crucial: Build capacity to reopen SAFELY.
- Reopening without protections is a big risk
- Many people won't resume normal economic activity until they feel it's safe, regardless of govt orders
- Every model has limits
- Most crucial: Build capacity to reopen SAFELY.
As for GA and FL, I do think their govts are risking a new surge. But this is also blunted somewhat, as Vance notes, by the fact that citizens remain risk-averse in their own daily choices.
That will slow spread but will also prolong economic pain.
That will slow spread but will also prolong economic pain.
Risk in premature reopening isn't just an explosion in cases; it's also that latent fear undermines the desired econ recovery.
Far better to reopen in a way that instills confidence - through an aggressive program of test/trace/isolate and investments in hospital readiness.
Far better to reopen in a way that instills confidence - through an aggressive program of test/trace/isolate and investments in hospital readiness.
And *that* is what the public health community is nearly universally calling for. The states that get that right will endure less pain - both health and economic - in the long run.
Final thought. I'm seeing a lot of comments on this website along the lines of "the experts said X but they were wrong, boooo experts." Most of these comments caricature what experts are actually saying. Disappointing to see that same dynamic at play in this thread.
