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Yes yes yes yes yes. This thread is great. Puts solid data behind some intuitive uneasiness I've felt based on reading a few of these studies.

Prolonged proximity in enclosed spaces needs to be seen as a major potential risk factor - irrespective of 6ft distancing.
(Relatedly this is why I'm stunned the White House is still putting the President in long meetings in closed rooms with unmasked people)
I suspect we'll find that this dynamic is at play in many/most of the super-spreading events.

Also a plausible reason why the severity of the NYC's outbreak appears tied to transit patterns.
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Jeremy TEST/TRACE/ISOLATE Konyndyk
@JeremyKonyndyk
Alright. There is a LOT of chatter on this website bashing those who are saying most of the country still isn't ready for a safe reopening.

So, as we approach what would normally be summer pool season, here's a short analogy about pooping and accountability.
Imagine you're at the pool, and a kid poops in the water. It happens a few times every summer.

What happens next? Everybody clears the pool. That's the initial step to protect people from the poop.

But it's not the end of the story.
There's a next step - some poor soul on pool staff has to go fish out the poop. It's a pretty thankless job.

Then they have to shock the pool with chlorine to kill off bacteria.

And then everyone waits half and hour or so til it's safe to swim again. cdc.gov/healthywater/s…
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Jeremy TEST/TRACE/ISOLATE Konyndyk
@JeremyKonyndyk
OK, I'll bite.

Flatten the curve was always just phase 1. It was never the end of the story. It was a pause to buy us time to prepare.

Except - the federal government has been squandering it. So we're stuck in limbo.

Don't blame Fauci et al for this, blame Trump.
I get the frustration here. I feel it. Tho I'm fortunate to be able to work from home, I'm still desperate for this to end. I don't know when I'll be able to see my parents, when my kids will see their friends, etc. I'm watching friends' businesses face bankruptcy. It's awful.
But if you feel you've been sold a bait-and-switch, ask first who dangled the bait. Ask who told you it would be easy in the first place.

It wasn't health experts saying "flatten the curve and it'll magically go away."

It was politicians saying that. And one in particular.
Read 18 tweets
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Jeremy TEST/TRACE/ISOLATE Konyndyk
@JeremyKonyndyk
Some good points here but also a lot of straw men.

Contra these claims, I have not seen many credible public health folks:
- Treating the IHME model as gospel (many have been highly critical)
- Predicting "mass death in GA by May" (source on this claim?)
- Ignoring uncertainty
Prominent public health voices *have* been saying that:
- Reopening without protections is a big risk
- Many people won't resume normal economic activity until they feel it's safe, regardless of govt orders
- Every model has limits
- Most crucial: Build capacity to reopen SAFELY.
As for GA and FL, I do think their govts are risking a new surge. But this is also blunted somewhat, as Vance notes, by the fact that citizens remain risk-averse in their own daily choices.

That will slow spread but will also prolong economic pain.
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