Thread by @ashishkjha

Catching up on the news.

Spain antibody testing out today.

Headline: 5% of population has already been infected,

Is this a surprise? Sadly, no.

A short thread.

First, lets do the numbers.

Spain population: 46.94 million

5% of Spain population: 2.35 million

Official # of pts found to be infected: 229 thousand

Official # of deaths from COVID19: 27,104

So what does this mean?

2/3

1 Number of folks infected about 10X official count

2 Infection fatality rate 1.15%

Prior Ab studies (NY, Miami) find # of infxns 10-20X official counts

IFR 1.15% higher than I'd expected (my priors were 0.8%)

Spain remains far from herd immunity
COVID19 a deadly disease

Fin