Today's Part 2 of "Project Evade" by the FM was truly a damp squib. The first 40 minutes was just a dry narration of claims. The dates here were carefully selected where the public has few ways of independently cross-verifying the claims. 1/n
Again, the extent of fiscal obligation was kept bare minimum with the banking system being used to the hilt to make big claims. Let us, in this thread, examine the claims and announcements of today. 2/n
The FM said that loans worth Rs 86,600 crore were provided to agriculture in March-April 2020. Assuming that 25% of agril loans are given in March-April (2007 estimates), Rs 3 lakh crore was supplied in March-April 2019. 3/n
If only Rs 86,600 crore was given as agricultural loans in March-April 2020, as the FM herself stated today, it means that only 25% of agricultural loans given out in March-April 2019 was given in March-April 2020! That's actually a huge fall! 4/n
Giving NABARD more money to refinance cooperatives and RRBs is a welcome step. But, the FM claimed that Kisan Credit Cards (KCC) will now be given to dairy farmers and fisherfolk also. But that's not new policy at all. 5/n
Extension of KCC to "Animal Husbandry farmers and Fisheries for their working capital requirements" was introduced by the RBI way back in 2018-19. See RBI circular at bit.ly/3cwo1sL. It has now been now re-announced! 6/n
Allowing States to use SDRF for building migrant shelter homes was a policy announced in March 2020. See bit.ly/3fKmS2N. This also was re-announced today. But where are these homes? Data show that 68% of shelter homes in India were in Kerala. How about other States? 7/n
As per 2011 census, there were 14.2 crore migrant workers in India. If 10% of them wanted to return home, we would need to transport 1.4 crore people (@sritara says at least 63 lakh persons. Fine). But we have transported just 10 lakh persons. That's a trickle! 8/n
The FM then claimed that the number of person-days generated under MGNREGS rose in 2020 by 40-50% compared to 2019! This is wrong. In April 2019, 27.3 crore person-days were generated. But in April 2020, only 11.1 crore person-days were generated (just 60%). 9/n
Now take May 2020. Till May 14th 2020, MGNREGS generated only 7% of the person-days generated in the whole of May 2019. Just 2.5 crore person-days in May 2020 as against 37 crore person-days in May 2019. It is going to be a huge fall! 10/n
Free ration for non-card holders for 2 months is welcome. However, identification of these beneficiaries by States will take a minimum of two months. The lockdown is likely to be over by then. So, what is the meaning of this announcement? 11/n
National portability of PDS: problems of Aadhaar seeding in ration cards, error rates in biometric authentication and poor internet/power connectivity will mar its implementation. Balancing of demand & supply of grains at the local level will be another major challenge. 12/n
The scheme for rental accommodation of migrant workers in cities is extraordinarily vague. It is most likely to be dumped on the way. 13/n
Interest subvention of 2% in MUDRA's shishu loans is just that: shishu! Average shishu loan size is Rs 22,500. Annual benefit for an average borrower will be just Rs 450 per loan! 14/n
Loans for street vendors, extension of credit-linked subsidy scheme in housing and employment generation for STs...the impacts are likely to be marginal. The fiscal implications are minimal! 15/n
In sum, Part 2 of "Project Evade" means even less in fiscal terms than yesterday's Part 1. The idea, again, is to squeeze bank's deposit base to make grandiose announcements and grab headlines. 16/n
There is no indication of any income transfer scheme for migrant workers (any transfer of cash) or for farmers (even a front-loading of the 2nd installment of PM-Kisan). And nothing at all for States who are bearing the burden of addressing challenges. Truly damp squib. 17/17
@threadreaderapp pl unroll
