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R. Ramakumar Profile picture
R. Ramakumar
@ramakumarr
Economist, with above normal interest in politics. Tweets, when put out rarely, are personal.
3 subscribers
Aug 15 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
1/ <Thread on KLEMS and jobs> Lately, India has heard much on how the "RBI data on employment" show a rise in job creation after Covid-19. Many economists had tried to say why it is wrong to argue so. We now have a clearer explanation on the problems with the KLEMS data on jobs. 2/ In an article in the Indian Express, dt 14/08/24, Amitabh Kundu and P. C. Mohanan explain this neatly. Let me try to summarise their view.

The RBI DOES NOT collect data on employment. They, like others, use employment data from the NSSO's Periodic Labour Force Surveys (PLFS).
Apr 24 • 18 tweets • 4 min read
1/ A brief thread on inheritance taxes:

Sometime in August 2014, a news item caught my attention. It said that Lakshmi Mittal, the steel tycoon, is planning to buy Blencathra, a 2850 feet-high peak, in Cumbria, UK. Curious about why the guy would buy a mountain, I dug in. 2/ Blencathra peak was owned by the 7th Earl of Lonsdale. Lord Lonsdale died in 2006. He left behind his estate for his eldest son, Hugh Lowther, but he had to pay £9 million as inheritance tax to get it in his name. UK had a 40% inheritance tax (above a threshold of £325,000).
Feb 29 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
1/ From today's The Hindu.

Let me put out a short thread on how this piece got written, and why I think it is important in the ongoing debate on Union-State economic relations. This was a topic I started looking at, first for some fun but later with some academic amusement. Image 2/ We knew that the Union government was trying to keep an increasing share of its gross tax revenues outside the net proceeds (or the divisible pool) in order to not share them with the States as per Finance Commission recommendations.
Mar 21, 2023 • 20 tweets • 4 min read
1/ How to shoot yourself in the foot...

The former CEA has posted some tweets responding to my tweets on investment rates in India estimated at current and constant prices. Someone might want to tell him that his tweets actually strengthen my case.

2/ He begins by repeating that Prof Basu is "incorrect" and retweets a post by SK Ghosh to bolster his case that investment rates at current prices must NOT be used. But then Ghosh, in that tweet, is actually saying that using data at current prices IS "the conventional wisdom".
Mar 20, 2023 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
1/ The former CEA is acting smart by pointing to India's investment rate under constant prices rather than investment rate under current prices, which Prof Basu (@kaushikcbasu) is referring to. And he then calls it "clearly incorrect" and all. Is he right? No. 2/ Prof Basu is correct in saying that the gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) as a share of the GDP fell from 34.3% in 2011-12 to 29.2% in 2022-23 (SAE). These rates are at current prices. But I wish Prof Basu had used numbers for gross capital formation (GCF) instead of GFCF.
Sep 4, 2022 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
1/ <Thread> A major news today was the decision of @shailajateacher, former Minister for Health in Kerala, politely declining the offer of the Ramon Magsaysay award for 2022. A newspaper, however, editorialised the news and called it a "second historic blunder". 2/ Such phrasing was not just sheer stupidity but also a grand display of the journalist's ignorance of what Left politics means. It was certainly a news worthy of reporting, but to editorialise it such smacked of intentions that could hardly be noble.

Who was Ramon Magsaysay?
Mar 27, 2022 • 24 tweets • 6 min read
1/ <THREAD> How do we explain and understand the current economic crisis in Sri Lanka? In this thread, I try to follow some of the major events in the nation's economy over the last few years and situate the present crisis in a context. 2/ To begin with, Sri Lanka's economic growth rate was on a decline from around 2012 itself. Its GDP growth rate fell rather steadily after 2012. The post-war growth acceleration petered out soon, and the current account deficit widened in the absence of export growth.
Feb 2, 2022 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
@chandru_chawla 1/ I have only hastily gone through the report. I will make two preliminary points.

a) Organic farming is not the same as zero budget natural farming (ZBNF). In fact, the practitioners of the two methods dislike each other. I will offer a few quotes from Subhash Palekar. @chandru_chawla 2/ According to Palekar, organic farming is "more dangerous than chemical farming" and "worse than an atom bomb". He calls vermicomposting a "scandal" and the red worm as a "destructor beast". The biodynamic farming of Rudolf Steiner is, for Palekar, "biodynamite farming"!
Feb 1, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
1/ I will answer all the 3 questions.

1) I don't know what is "chemical farming". If you think organic farming is non-chemical, it would be wrong. Farmers use cow dung in soil to not just improve organic matter, but also get nitrogen (N). This N is no different from N in urea. 2/ I stand for scientific farming, where agricultural scientists argue for (a) integrated & balanced nutrient management (i.e., maintaining optimum soil fertility & nutrient supply by using both organic matter and chemical fertilisers, where required after soil tests);
Feb 1, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
<thread> 1/ The focus in the Union Budget 2022-23 on natural farming and chemical-free farming is a huge mistake and a misdirected policy path. Zero budget natural farming (ZBNF) is quackery, and has no sanction among agricultural scientists. 2/ Adoption of ZBNF will lead to a 20-30% fall of yields in agriculture. The only reason why the government appears to be intent on it is the rising subsidies on fertilizers, which in turn is due to rising international prices of raw materials.
Oct 21, 2021 • 14 tweets • 3 min read
1/ <Thread on vaccination in India>

It is a matter of joy that India has administered 1 billion doses. Every Indian should be proud. However, it is equally important to mellow down and have a calm and dispassionate look at facts. I will attempt it in this thread. 2/ First, we should have reached 1 billion doses long back. We are actually late in reaching the target today. In the first week of April 2021 itself, India had showed that it had the capacity to administer 5 million doses/day (see data for 7 April).
Aug 7, 2021 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
1/ <Thread> on what is happening to Sputnik V vaccines. Something is strange and I do not know the reason. In the second affidavit to the Supreme Court, the Government of India (GoI) had said that, as on 26 June 2021, India had "received" 32.1 lakh doses of the vaccine. 2/ There are updates on this after 26 June. According to a reply given by GoI to Rajya Sabha, “India has imported 31.5 lakh units of Sputnik component 1 and 4.5 lakh units of Sputnik component 2 vaccine till date”. That makes a total of 36 lakh doses of the vaccine available.
Jul 27, 2021 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
1/ <Thread> Here is the joke of the week. Press release by Government of India (GoI). bit.ly/37hWGtn. It says 51.6 crore vaccine doses would "indeed" be supplied between January & July 2021. All reports otherwise are ill-informed and misrepresentations. Are they? 2/ By June, about 33 crore doses were administered in India. In the affidavit to the Supreme Court on 26 June, GoI said it planned to administer 12 crore doses in July 2021. This target was later revised to 13.5 crore doses by the new health minister.
Jul 16, 2021 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
1/ A little thread on the new evidence emerging on how and why the 75:25 ratio of allocation of vaccine doses across the union government and private hospitals may actually be slowing down overall vaccination rates in India. #VaccineForAll 2/ Given the high prices for vaccines in private hospitals, the allocation of 25 per cent of doses to private hospitals is essentially a reservation for the rich. It weakens the goal of equality and allows for discrimination to persist in the vaccine policy.
Jun 16, 2021 • 21 tweets • 5 min read
1/ <Thread> on how India's vaccination drive is proceeding in June 2021, and whether it would meet GoI's goals. GoI had said that it would administer 12 crore doses in June. Data till 15 June show that there would be a 25% shortfall from the target of doses for the full month. 2/ First, the goals. On 30 May, GoI put out a press release saying it would "make available" 12 crore for June 2021. I had written about this in @thewire_in: bit.ly/2S2ahAX. I had noted that a similar target was not met in May 2021. It won't be met in June 2021 either.
Jun 1, 2021 • 31 tweets • 7 min read
1/ <Thread> On why Government of India's (GoI) vaccine plan for June 2021 is plain misleading. GoI says it will "make available" 12 crore vaccine doses in June, of which 6.1 crore is GoI quota and 5.9 crore will be available for direct purchase by States and private hospitals. 2/ You can read the press release of GoI, dated 30 May 2021, here at bit.ly/3vAG8Y3.
May 27, 2021 • 25 tweets • 6 min read
1/ <Thread> on the Niti Ayog's press release "Myths & Facts on India’s Vaccination Process". It is a pity that the Niti Ayog, unlike its venerable predecessor Planning Commission, is being turned into a joke in the public eye by its present incumbents. pib.gov.in/PressReleasePa… 2/ Myth 1: The criticism against GoI is that it delayed placing advance purchase orders for vaccines till January 2021. Other nations had placed orders by June 2020 itself. Bangladesh placed its first order with SII in November 2020. Why couldn't the GoI place orders earlier?
May 14, 2021 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
A thread on the claims made by GoI in its press conference yesterday (see pib.gov.in/PressReleasePa… and for the recording). Let me take, one by one, their so-called repudiation of "reports in a section of the media followed by some uninformed tweets"! 1/n Their first graph was accompanied by a claim that of all vaccines given in the world, 13% are in India. First, this graph with absolute data shows that India's is NOT the world's "largest" vaccination programme, as claimed. China and US are ahead of us even in absolute terms. 2/n
Apr 28, 2021 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
A thread on the allocation of vaccines across Indian States. Some argue that the existing allocation of #vaccines is fine, that the new system of States being free to buy vaccines directly would be equally fine, and that there is nothing to worry. Is is true? Hardly. 1/n How do we check if the current allocations are equitable? Some compare allocations with population shares. But this would be wrong, as the eligible population is only those >45 years of age (till 30 April). A note from two scholars from AshokaU gives some interesting results. 2/n
Apr 25, 2021 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
A thread on Bharat Biotech's (BB) pricing of Covaxin at Rs 600/dose for State governments and Rs 1200/dose for private hospitals. The pricing of Covaxin at prices higher than Covishield puts the so-called Indian vaccine even more out of bounds for the poorer Indian citizens. 1/n Covishield (Oxford-AstraZeneca) was a 97% public funded vaccine. Yet, Oxford exclusively licensed it to AstraZeneca. AstraZeneca exclusively licensed its Indian market to Serum Institute (SII). SII is now making a close to "super profit". Public funded, but private profits. 2/n
Apr 21, 2021 • 21 tweets • 5 min read
A thread in response to different views expressed against my tweets and articles on Covid #vaccines. Many were abuses; I ignore them. I try to take the reasonable questions and try to answer them here. One question and one answer in each tweet below. Its a long thread, btw! 1/n Q1) Why should India give vaccines free? Who gives vaccines free?

A1) Most countries are giving Covid vaccines free to their citizens. I shall give examples of some major countries, including United States, United Kingdom, China, Germany and France. See screen shots below. 2/n