Good morning! It’s Friday (China data dump day!!!) Here are some flowers 💐 from my mom’s garden. She likes the whole “wild” aesthetic & her hill is pretty alive, not with music, but all sorts of succulents, Mediterranean & tropical plants + fruit trees! Got an excel on inventory 
China data at 10am - people are eyeing retail sales (very key for demand) and hope of normalization to single digit decline of demand for goods.
Japan had PPI further deflated in April (China too). So here we go, demand wanted!!!
Japan had PPI further deflated in April (China too). So here we go, demand wanted!!!
China retail sales out soon. Note that while services normalized (%MoM for service PMI), China retail sales normalizing at a glacial pace & so given the still contraction of service PMI in April, will we get something that resembles a recovering today.
China data just in & same old problem: Demand remains an issue while supply is resuming.
Retail sales normalizing but still falling by -7.5%YoY & investment falling by -10.3% & that's w/ the boost of infra already.
On the other hand, IP is up by 3.9%YoY.
Private sector weak.
Retail sales normalizing but still falling by -7.5%YoY & investment falling by -10.3% & that's w/ the boost of infra already.
On the other hand, IP is up by 3.9%YoY.
Private sector weak.
Got demand? Supply is an easy part of the equation to solve for China but demand not so easy unless the state steps up because the private sector is le weak (but most productive).
Let's look at retail sales in details:
Food, beverages, tobacco, & daily use items up! (essentials
Let's look at retail sales in details:
Food, beverages, tobacco, & daily use items up! (essentials
Automobiles is flat, a miracle. Medicine & office supply up.
That said, restaurant & catering is CRATERING!!! As I told you, services are going to be wayyyy worse than manufacturing.
DEMAND WANTED!!! DOMESTIC DEMAND IS KING!!! 👑🙇🏻♀️🙇🏻♀️🙇🏻♀️
That said, restaurant & catering is CRATERING!!! As I told you, services are going to be wayyyy worse than manufacturing.
DEMAND WANTED!!! DOMESTIC DEMAND IS KING!!! 👑🙇🏻♀️🙇🏻♀️🙇🏻♀️
Demand problems everywhere (IP up is just supply side & so if you have demand cratering like FAI & spending then you know PPI is gonna deepen!!!).
Okay, details of investment:
Private down still but less down by -13.3%
SOEs down still -6.9% but less so!
Okay, details of investment:
Private down still but less down by -13.3%
SOEs down still -6.9% but less so!
Details of sector is pretty ugly. Only healthcare up (+4%) & education (+2.9%); Telecom +1.1%; Power +7.6% & Pharma -2.7%. Rest got this grim double digits decline!!!
Key takeaway:
a) Normalizing but easier to do so with supply than demand as people are saving more & worried about future as unemployment rising!!! Hence divergence of IP & retail sales + FAI
b) By April, got massive ytd fall of retail sales of -16% & FAI -10% so hard to recover.
a) Normalizing but easier to do so with supply than demand as people are saving more & worried about future as unemployment rising!!! Hence divergence of IP & retail sales + FAI
b) By April, got massive ytd fall of retail sales of -16% & FAI -10% so hard to recover.
And the good news continues. Demand wanted!. Indonesia just posted a sharper decline of imports of -18.6%YoY (exports fell too by -7%). And so, as we expected, the IDR is going to be helped by not an expansion of exports but decline of demand. And that's bad news for growth!!!🇮🇩
EUR doesn't like this decline of demand out of China & Asia in general! Don't forget that Europe is the biggest trader of them all!! Not good news for all these current account surplus economies. Global demand is in ICU!!!
🌏😱😷🤧🤒💉💊
🌏😱😷🤧🤒💉💊
