Economic stimulus, by definition, is action by the government to encourage private sector economic activity by engaging in targeted, expansionary monetary or fiscal policy.
Policy tools often used to implement economic stimulus include lowering interest rates, increasing government spending, & QE, to name a few. All these tools are means to stimulate demand & spur consumption to keep the economic cycle moving.
However, how providing a loan or credit to a section of the society can be considered as a stimulus package? By a similar measure, can we treat it as income in our books instead of showing it as a liability so that we never have to repay it?
As of 2019, the total loans disbursed by all banks increased from 87.46 lac crores to 97.10 lac crores. That would be an 9.64 lac crore 'Economic Stimulus' in 2019, going by this accounting!
By the way, the banks don't have a choice but to grant an additional loan to ensure that the MSMEs survive and don't turn sick! It is a normal banking practice!
It is true that some loans have been announced with government guarantees and that may lead to bad loans and will have a fiscal impact. But that happens in usual time also.
By terming providing 'loans' as stimulus, we are just indulging in financial and accounting jugglery
As Tom Hanks said in the movie Sully - "Can we get serious now" ?
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Markets had an extremely smooth run-time in last 5 months, much ahead of everyone's expectations.
Older and wiser investors are unduly cautious while newer and bold investors with YOLO approach wants more.
Time for some investment lessons learned from past cycles 🧵
(1) Define your investment objectives and goals clearly.
Success in investment depends largely on clarity in investment O&G. Factors like growth, yield, income, risk, are dynamic & will keep on changing every year.
Investors must periodically re-evaluate objectives.
(2) Forming a solid investment team is critical to successful investment strategy.
Carefully assess the honesty, competence, and objective of those giving you investment advice & services.
DIY investors need to make sure they have sufficient time and skill set to execute.
A thread of the 10 best podcast episodes (& series) I listened to this year #2022inreview
PS : I use @Spotify as my platform, so hyperlinks are from there. In the case of the series, I have shared a link to the first episode.
This is across genres. RT for wider benefit.
(1) For over ~4hrs, @amitvarma and @BShrayana discuss the complexities of being a woman in India. Context is the latter's wonderfully written - "Desperately Seeking Shah Rukh" which is a cleverly disguised economics book talking about movies.
(2) Summarizing gist of the business is a forte of @bizbreakdowns and this one chronicling GE's dominance and decline is a treat, specially inputs coming from Josh Aguilar, @MorningstarInc analyst who has tracked the company closely for many yrs.
Certain business channels allowing ONLY SEBI registered analysts & advisors to come on their shows from NOW ON after all this brouhaha is just hogwash.
This should have been done always in the past but that's not how money is made on channels.
Eventually all business channels need to survive which means more hits and clicks across various social media platforms. So called finfluencers provided that on a platter, regulation be damned.
So now following the RA (2016) or RIA (2013) regulations smells of hypocricy.
Every finfluencer has been blantantly disregarding RA/RIA regulations for years in the name of 'only for educational purposes'.
Regulations are clear, if you want to talk about stocks across ANY platform, get a license from SEBI. But this has been rarely practiced.
Quite a lot of investors are worried about the FPIs dumping Indian equities and concluding that this is the prime reason for the ongoing correction in stock prices.
A 🧵 to understand details about FPIs buying and selling in financial markets before jumping to conclusions
(1) FPIs are NOT a uniform class of investors.
Some examples:
Pension funds - very long term horizon (multi-decades)
Hedge funds & AIF - very short term horizon (3-6m)
EM funds - buy/sell as basket including India
ETFs - MSCI, iShare EM, iShare Asia, FTSE
(1a) All these investors differ in Investment:
- Horizon
- Objectives
- Strategies
They rarely act in unison as the universe of investible stocks is also different.
To assume that all FPIs are selling at the same time violating the mandate & exiting India is bit overdramatic.
A good article on the challenges of working as SEBI registered Investment advisor (RIA). The new norms have come from Oct-20 and it has caused more harm than good.
(1) The 2yr PG in "relevant stream" clause is filled with roadblocks (Earlier it was only PG). Forcing RIAs to do a PG degree that too of 2 yrs is bizzare. Many professional certifications like CS were removed from the equivalent PG category overnight.
(2) Foreign PG degrees of 2 yrs require equivalent certificate from Indian authorities which is a pain specially if considerable time has passed for PG. Its like running from pillar to post. Proving "relevant stream" again has been an uphill task.