Amit Kumar Gupta Profile picture
Portfolio Research | Asset Allocator | Loves Scuttlebutt | Avid reader | CWM®
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Mar 7 19 tweets 5 min read
Quite a lot of investors are worried about the FPIs dumping Indian equities and concluding that this is the prime reason for the ongoing correction in stock prices.

A 🧵 to understand details about FPIs buying and selling in financial markets before jumping to conclusions (1) FPIs are NOT a uniform class of investors.

Some examples:

Pension funds - very long term horizon (multi-decades)
Hedge funds & AIF - very short term horizon (3-6m)
EM funds - buy/sell as basket including India
ETFs - MSCI, iShare EM, iShare Asia, FTSE
Mar 5 9 tweets 2 min read
A good article on the challenges of working as SEBI registered Investment advisor (RIA). The new norms have come from Oct-20 and it has caused more harm than good.

A short thread 🧵 (1) The 2yr PG in "relevant stream" clause is filled with roadblocks (Earlier it was only PG). Forcing RIAs to do a PG degree that too of 2 yrs is bizzare. Many professional certifications like CS were removed from the equivalent PG category overnight.
Dec 25, 2021 17 tweets 5 min read
A thread of best twitter threads I read this year #2021inreview #twitter #threads (1) Why does Red Bull own an F1 team?
Jan 9, 2021 9 tweets 3 min read
A thread on cumulative FII inflows into India in the CY2020

Background  : This was a widely shared link on social media and also tweeted by FM @nsitharaman amid a lot of discussion around the strong foreign inflows in Indian equities.

moneycontrol.com/news/business/… India received ~1.6 lakh crore in FII flows last calendar year when most Asian and emerging markets witnessed outflows. This is encouraging stuff one would say. However, this is not the complete story.
Sep 24, 2020 13 tweets 3 min read
A thread on the new Registered investment advisors (RIA) regulations which are coming to effect from 30th Sept, 2020

SEBI came up with the final regulations/explanations yesterday. Here is the link to the circular

sebi.gov.in/legal/circular… (Q1) Are there any new changes apart from the one notified in 1 July, 2020 and effective now?

Not much, but SEBI has given few clarifications where RIA has raised doubts. Good news is there are no further burden. The new guidelines are almost similar to the consultation paper.
Sep 11, 2020 10 tweets 2 min read
(1/n) A thread on the SEBI new circular with respect to increase in equity exposure across multi-cap funds

For brevity, Large caps (LCs), Mid caps (MCs) and Small caps (SCs) (2/n) Which funds are impacted by this?

ALL multi-cap funds. [It does NOT mean focused funds with multi-cap strategy or Combination funds (large & mid or mid & small cap types)]

A clean reading means Multi-cap funds with international exposure to equities will also be impacted
Sep 9, 2020 4 tweets 1 min read
"Right now, we're in an absolute raging mania. We've got commentators encouraging companies to do stock splits. Companies then go up 50%, 30%, 40% on stock splits. That brings no value, but the stocks go up"

Very interesting comments from Druckenmiller "I have no clue where the market is gonna go in the near term. I don't know whether it's going to go up 10%; I don't know whether it's going to go down 10%," Druckenmiller said. "But I would say the next three-to-five years are going to be very, very challenging"
Aug 31, 2020 10 tweets 2 min read
There are some genuine queries regarding this. It was clarified by the exchanges couple of weeks ago.

Please see the new thread below for further clarification (1) The minimum margin requirement for BUYING stocks from the client can be 20% of the trade value instead of (earlier decided) full 100% VAR+ELM

In such case, broker will make up for the difference between this 20% and VAR+ELM from its own capital. Most will be happy to do so
Aug 20, 2020 5 tweets 1 min read
The global economy is recovering at a modest pace after bottoming out in April, with data showing much improvement from May to July. But how long can this pace be sustained? Will social distancing measures and restricted global travel cap the recovery? Those remain key questions as we gauge the "new normal" across major economies.

Sure, things are getting better with time but how much "better" can things be when there are fears of a second wave brewing in many countries/regions once again?
Aug 18, 2020 7 tweets 2 min read
Thread on 3 stocks - Balaji Amines, Thyrocare and Sterlite Technologies (Disc : no position in any of them) being added into watchlist.

Exchanges regularly update the stocks watchlist who come frequently on SMS. It did so last night and included these 3.

bseindia.com/downloads1/Cur… The stocks are added into the watchlist only as a Cautionary measure to investors.

Most such stocks are "shady" and SMSes on WA & TG/messages on social media are floated to the advantage of operators and at the expense of gullible investors.
Aug 16, 2020 5 tweets 2 min read
Every decision of the #MSDhoni retirement shows evolved thinking - The Date (15th Aug signifying his army association in last few years), the time (1929 hours when sun set at the southernmost point of India at Cape #Comorin)... His last Instagram message (#Sahir Ludhianvi lyrics to show how any success or failure is just a fleeting moment) and taking decision at a time when there will be no media interaction (#CSK players are in bio bubble before departure for IPL).
Aug 8, 2020 7 tweets 2 min read
Aug 6, 2020 9 tweets 1 min read
Repo Rate kept unchanged at 4%
MSF and Reverse repo rate unchanged
Accommodating stance emphasized Supply chain disruption led to higher inflation outlook in near term
Higher taxes leading to higher energy inflation
2HFY21 inflation may ease
Jul 29, 2020 6 tweets 3 min read
It's that time of the season again when Divestment talks during a bull run gathers momentum (with little results)

LIC IPO is back on the table with advisors being chosen. Fair enough!

A thread below on why LIC IPO is not going to be a cakewalk (a) LIC is the largest #DII in India handling $500bn #investment portfolio. LIC act stipulates that all #receipts and payments need to be made out of that fund only. In case govt divest 10% stake (min stake required as per #SEBI regulations), who will do the corpus handling?
Jul 26, 2020 17 tweets 3 min read
Unusual and unnecessary confusion regarding the new margin rules in certain segments.

A thread explaining the details as per SEBI notice(s) so far... In 2019 June, SEBI outlined new margin rules for F&O segment citing that intraday losses and margins need to be paid in advance to the broker. Suitable penalties were imposed.

After postponing once in Aug-19, finally the new F&O rules were implemented from 1st Oct, 2019.
Jul 21, 2020 8 tweets 2 min read
There are solid reasons for Gold and Silver to keep moving higher.

There is more stimulus to come. EU just approved a 750bn euros fund for Corona recovery. That's a huge slosh of liquidity right there. Remember, they are at negative rates. The increase in COVID-19 cases globally, especially in the US, mean that the Fed is likely to ease more which will suit gold upside even further

Fed officials have warned that the US outlook is getting worse and easing is the answer.

US is at zero rates.
Jun 29, 2020 6 tweets 2 min read
This 7-film announcement virtually sounds a death knell for film exhibitors for next 6 months. Netflix, Amazon and other OTT platforms are likely to follow with similar announcements. The content supply is a major issue now. With new movies going directly to OTT and actual shootings happening in a calibrated (and slower than usual) manner, means there will be dearth of content in next few months.
Jun 9, 2020 5 tweets 2 min read
What's really crazy about the rally in US is that retail has led this with hedge funds on the sidelines. Now the latter is forced to be involved in FOMO. Robinhood trading accounts have surged during "historic rally" from March lows. Image
Jun 3, 2020 5 tweets 1 min read
A thread on divergence between economic data and market performance

When a coin is dropped from the top of a 50-story building, snapshots at 25th floor and again at 10th floor may be interesting for a photographer, or physicist (due to time frame) but it makes little difference. That is the scenario with economic data (except its slower). Data is going to get worse. 

It is hardly surprising that activity has slowed down dramatically when broad parts of the major economies have shut down in light of Covid-19.
Jun 2, 2020 113 tweets 47 min read
May 15, 2020 7 tweets 1 min read
Economic stimulus, by definition, is action by the government to encourage private sector economic activity by engaging in targeted, expansionary monetary or fiscal policy. Policy tools often used to implement economic stimulus include lowering interest rates, increasing government spending, & QE, to name a few. All these tools are means to stimulate demand & spur consumption to keep the economic cycle moving.