Thread by @garius

To those asking: we won't do anything on the TfL/Gov deal on @lonrec as we like to give it a few weeks to get the full picture/detail.

Here's some VERY quick initial points for you to think about from me, based on what has published so far though #thread

The deal includes limitations on Freedom pass and a return to fare increases. Most likely RPI+1.

That's bad news for those affected. POLITICALLY it's actually rather good news for Khan, whether he's realised it or not.

The current FP model is broken and outdated. Fares were always going to have to return to rises too.

Pretty much EVERY candidate in the Mayoral elections was stressing about how to explain that to voters.

Now the government is the bad guy.

Indeed pretty much everyone (except @OnLondon, I note) failed to spot that Khan/TfL had already engineered the fare rise OUT of the next Budget/Business Plan.

I do wonder whether in their excitement at getting to kick TfL/the Mayor a bit, the government failed to spot that too.

The length of the current arrangement (to Oct) is annoying, but reasonable, given that we DON'T KNOW when or how isolation will end, and how quickly fares will bounce back.

I'd suggest it gives you an idea of when the government THINK they can seriously reduce Lockdown in London

The new governance arrangements are the thing that will potentially cause the most upheaval for TfL. I would not be surprised AT ALL to see @danielmgmoylan on the TfL Board soon.

Similarly, ANOTHER full review is the LAST thing TfL staff need right now.

Let's talk 'blame' because it always happens:

There is NO blame on Khan, or TfL here for how they have handled this crisis. You can't win at poker if you have don't have a hand and your opponent knows it.

And, as I've said MULTIPLE times, the Fare Freeze was IRRELEVANT here.

One thing I do think the Mayor, and to a lesser extent TfL, need to ask themselves though is whether they should have prodded the DfT/Gov slightly LESS publicly in recent years, politically, over things like rail devolution.

Because, frankly, nobody likes being repeatedly told they are shit, very publicly, even when its true.

And whilst the MINISTERS were always going to be hostile to TfL right now, I do suspect they lost some Civil Service allies within HM Treasury/DfT too, unnecessarily.

Finally, what next?

SHORT TERM: That looming Oct deadline. Khan/TfL Senior Leadership need to be VERY CARFUL here not to bite back and look like they're playing politics. They've been done over a bit here, but I've no doubt some in the government would love to do it again.

The easiest way for those elements to get away with that would be if they can cast Khan, and TfL as playing 'politics' with people's lives rather than doing their job.

Which would be ENORMOUSLY unfair. But that won't stop them trying.

Easiest way to avoid that is to focus - and be seen by Londoners and importantly TfL STAFF - to be focused on the right thing:

"Screw the government. Screw your politics. We know what we need to do. We're proud of that. We will move this city. We are London, together."

LONG TERM: The key, and very welcome, thing in Khan's response this morning is where he talks about the financial model of expecting TfL to run on 'fares only' is utterly broken.

It is. It has been for a while. Even the government can't deny that now.

So what we need to see NOW is an acceptance that TfL, and London, need to be smarter about how we manage, design and FUND our transport network in this city. Business as usual doesn't exist anymore.

And the GOVERNMENT need to give London the powers to do that.

Dynamic pricing (start with private hire and taxis), new taxation models, new approaches to bus planning, alternatives to mega-projects. All these aren't now just nice things to have, they are the ONLY way that London and TfL moves forward.

And the good news is that these are all things the Mayor will find PLENTY of allies, in London government, for. They're things that people like @CarolinePidgeon and @sianberry have talked about for years. As well as those in his own party, like @tomcopley

Have TfL, the Mayor, and London been punched in the chest here? Yes. Will another punch come in Oct? Maybe

But it'll only get, and be, WORSE if those in charge of transport strategy in this city don't ACCEPT this is the new reality for all of us: Londoners and TfL staff together

Coronavirus has been, and continues to be, a transport crisis for London on the scale of the Kings Cross fire. By that, I mean that in future we WILL talk about transport policy in this city as pre- or post- this crisis.

That's just the reality. Nothing is going to change that.

As we discovered then, as Copenhagen discovered in the 70s oil crisis, sometimes the only benefit of a crisis is that you have no CHOICE but to start thinking different

London is on a new transport journey now. The Mayor and the new Commissioner will need to own that and lead it

Or, to meme this, just imagine Rocky giving this speech to the Mayor and the TfL Board.

Because that's basically the point where London transport -and this city - is at, right now. /END