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1/16 Sweden - A thread where I compile some of the graphs I have tweeted regarding #covid19. From the beginning Ive been wanting to put this in perspective in a way that eg @InProportion2 and many others have done. Here we go...
2/16 First graph shows deaths per 100 000 in Sweden period november - april comparing 1990 - 2020. Eg population 1990 compared with season 90/91 and so on, it shows a mild season overall...
3/16 Second graph shows deaths per 100 000 comparing 1990-2020 but jan-apr instead of what might be seen as the flue season. I Will continue comparing as 2020 progresses...
4/16 Third graph shows a shorter period, march to april. These graphs suggests that April was a bad month in an otherwise mild period. I will compare april 2020 with other similarly bad months 1990-2020 but first to show the impact of april in next graph..
5/16 April rises from the noise as can be seen here as #covid19 seems to peak around week 15/16. How does April compare with other months with high mortality rates?...
6/16 When comparing single months period 1990-2020 per 100 000 it can be seen that April 2020 truly was a bad month, but perhaps not unprecedented. Its clear that #covid19 has an impact, but what does other information tell us about how it impacts?..
7/16 Already in the beginning I could get a pretty clear picture from (Italy) eg @JenniferWegerup about how covid affected by age and often in people with comorbidities, the case seems to be the same in Sweden with more cases 90+ than below 70...
8/16 In the age group 70+ we can further see that most are 90+ and that the group 70+ is approx 88% of all deceased (previous graph). In the older age groups, more deceased seems to be women since men perhaps die younger? Next a look at comorbidities...
9/16 According to Socialstyrelsen a near 60% of the deceased has more than two of the mentioned comorbidities where hypertension is the most common. So we can see that age and comorbidities is playing a huge role in Sweden as well. Next care homes...
10/16 As eg @kerpen has pointed out, care homes are particularly affected in this pandemi. According to Socialstyrelsen, near 70% of the deceased received home care service or lived in a care home and...
11/16 According to Socialstyrelsen (if I interpret this correct) Almost 50% of the deceased died in a care home. It seems as if risk groups are similar in most countries and that care homes have been affected similarly everywhere with or without lockdown...
12/16 there were models predicting the outcome in Sweden something that @johanknorberg has written about here… it shows that keeping calm before acting on worst case scenario seems like a good idea...
13/16 ill just add these two graphs comparing actual figures with IHME projected figures per 2 May. Im still not sure why they would predict snygging for Sweden but they did. Fair to say that their predictions looks different as of now...
14/16 To summarize, April has been a very bad month in an otherwise pretty mild period and not at all comparable with 1919. Risk groups seems similar in Sweden as in other countries and younger people have very few cases....
15/16 projections seems to have missed by a lot and the worst is hopefully behind us. given the data it always seemed odd to put children under lockdown as has been done in some places and as @MarkChangizi and @AlexBerenson and others suggests..
16/16 probably skip lockdown all together/END Data from SCB, Folkhälsomyndigheten and Socialstyrelsen. Please let me know if something is unclear or Ive missed or misunderstood something🙏🏾
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