US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking:
Newly reported deaths
Today: 1,645
Yesterday: 1,741
One week ago (5/8): 1,760
Newly reported cases
T: 26K
Y: 25K
5/8: 28K
Newly reported tests
T: 378K
Y: 367K
5/8: 299K
Positive test rate
T: 7%
Y: 7%
5/8: 9%
Newly reported deaths
Today: 1,645
Yesterday: 1,741
One week ago (5/8): 1,760
Newly reported cases
T: 26K
Y: 25K
5/8: 28K
Newly reported tests
T: 378K
Y: 367K
5/8: 299K
Positive test rate
T: 7%
Y: 7%
5/8: 9%
This has become the new normal, for now. A slow decline in cases and deaths, a fairly steep increase in tests, and a fairly steep decline in the positive test rate. The degree to which you consider this good news or not will depend on your priors.
Of course, things could turn around, in either direction. When might we start to see the effect of re-openings in the data? Actually, it would probably be gradual. Re-openings began as early as Apr. 20 and will continue through May/June, and states do them in regions/stages.
Moreover, the re-openings are coming at a time when there are other, mostly helpful factors in play
—Mask-wearing ↑
—Warmer weather may help
—Testing and tracing ↑
—Susceptible population is a bit lower in some hard-hit cities/groups where decent #'s of people already had it
—Mask-wearing ↑
—Warmer weather may help
—Testing and tracing ↑
—Susceptible population is a bit lower in some hard-hit cities/groups where decent #'s of people already had it
Could we see spikes? Sure, it's possible. The magnitude of the effects on transmission rates in going from stricter to medium social distancing (no places are going totally "back to normal" yet) is uncertain. So are all of the parameters in the tweet above. Lots of uncertainty.
But it's also possible the effects could be something like "cases decline slowly, when they would have declined quickly if measures had remained in place" or "cases slowly increase, when they would have slowly declined".
