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US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking

Newly reported deaths
Today: 1,105
Yesterday: 1,261
One week ago (5/16): 1,286

Newly reported cases
T: 21K
Y: 24K
5/16: 25K

Newly reported tests
T: 366K
Y: 394K
5/16: 353K

Positive test rate
T: 6%
Y: 6%
5/16: 7%
Important: Note that some states that had been lumping in antibody tests with viral tests are now separating them. This is good news; the data shouldn't have been lumped together in the first place. But, it will cause some fluctuations when this happens.
Overall, this is a decent report. The 7-day average of deaths has fallen to ~1,200 from a peak of ~2,000. And NY state reported <100 deaths for the first time in a long while. The question is whether that progress will be sustained as distancing is relaxed, etc.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking:

Newly reported deaths
Today: 995
Yesterday: 1,192
One week ago (5/27): 1,333

Newly reported cases
T: 20K
Y: 24K
5/27: 19K

Newly reported tests
T: 457K
Y: 417K
5/27: 292K

Positive test rate
T: 4%
Y: 6%
5/27: 7%
So... a positive milestone. This is the first time we've been under 1,000 deaths (albeit just barely: 995) on a day that didn't follow a weekend or holiday since April 1. Wednesdays have generally been pretty bad days, in fact. So that's good news.
But while deaths have been falling, what's happening to cases is more ambiguous. My guess is we have maybe 20 states where the situation is clearly getting better, 3-5 where it's getting worse, and another ~25 where it depends on how you construe the data.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
If you poke around here you'll find quite a few states where different COVID metrics (cases, share of % tests, deaths, hospitalizations) point in different directions and/or the number of tests is fluctuating and it's not entirely obvious what's happening. public.tableau.com/profile/peter.…
If you carefully investigated each state, you could probably formulate a well-informed opinion as to what was really happening. And there are some states (e.g. NY) where all metrics are clearly getting better and a few (e.g. AZ) where they're all getting worse
But be wary of quick-and-dirty takes that don't look at the data as a whole. A lot of them are not very robust and, of course, people tend to construe the data in a way that matches their priors.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
I know this seems like a super obvious point, but when assessing how voters evaluate Trump and where his approval ratings might go, it's perhaps important to note that both COVID and the protests involve profound disruptions to everyday life in a way that say impeachment didn't.
The protests perhaps slightly less so if you're not living in a major city, although there are also a lot of protests in smaller cities. But the images on TV will instantly remind Americans everywhere that "this is not normal".
But there are a lot of voters who, in ordinary times, are softly pro-Trump. They may not like his conduct. But they think "politics is silly", "both sides are so partisan", "this stuff is overblown". LOTS of people in this bucket and they are underrepresented on social media.
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