1/ Feeling 🌞 today; alternative possibility:
COVID's R 2.5 has multiple compartments (with mixing)
*A small group of hypersocials R 8 (aka #COVIDIOTS)
*A large group w R<1 (#COVINTROVERTS)
Letting the hypersocials do their thing could lead to herd immunity at 10-20% prev 😀
COVID's R 2.5 has multiple compartments (with mixing)
*A small group of hypersocials R 8 (aka #COVIDIOTS)
*A large group w R<1 (#COVINTROVERTS)
Letting the hypersocials do their thing could lead to herd immunity at 10-20% prev 😀
2/ a few caveats- this assumes that super-givers are also more likely to be super-getters (early getters). This may not be true
An operatic loud talker may be great at spreading, not at getting.
This reduces the dampening/early infection and immunity effect
An operatic loud talker may be great at spreading, not at getting.
This reduces the dampening/early infection and immunity effect
3/ some of those most at risk of getting and spreading may be super important to society's functioning- we don't want them all to get infected quickly!
Think healthcare workers
We need PPE and protections for those people who are at high risk b/c jobs, not their social habits
Think healthcare workers
We need PPE and protections for those people who are at high risk b/c jobs, not their social habits
4/ you would think that this effect would be in place with other viral diseases, but in general, we see pretty good conformance to the classic formula- to get herd immunity you need {1 – 1/R0} of population to be infected (implies 60% for COVID)
[If we get R(t) to 1.5, it's 34%]
[If we get R(t) to 1.5, it's 34%]
5/ ..and this brings up the mixing question.
Maybe for eg influenza your super-getter/super-spreaders are totally mixed into the population and don't segregate with each other in bars.
Maybe they're children
Maybe for eg influenza your super-getter/super-spreaders are totally mixed into the population and don't segregate with each other in bars.
Maybe they're children
6/ the idea that variation in spreading propensity could reduce herd immunity threshold has some academic support. Here's a preprint from Gabriela Gomes if you're interested in reading more medrxiv.org/content/10.110… 
7/ and as always, @mlipsitch is on top of it
But I will end with one note of caution 🌦️
Getting herd immunity at lower (say 40%) infection rate is no picnic. NYC-level outbreak was catastrophic, at 20% infxn rate
So let the #COVIDIOTS go, but stay safe
But I will end with one note of caution 🌦️
Getting herd immunity at lower (say 40%) infection rate is no picnic. NYC-level outbreak was catastrophic, at 20% infxn rate
So let the #COVIDIOTS go, but stay safe
