Michael Levitt Profile picture
May 16, 2020 5 tweets 6 min read Read on X
@EdConwaySky @benton328 @phil_luttazi @KielRobinson @CeeMacBee @ScottGottliebMD @CT_Bergstrom @BuckSexton @nataliexdean @sav_says_ @JamesOKeefeIII @NAChristakis Europe's COVID19 Excess Deaths plateau at 153,006, 15% more than 17/18 Flu with same age range counts. Details follow ImageImageImageImage
EuroMOMO euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps Excess Deaths from 2020 Week 8 now match reported COVID Deaths @JHUSystems perfectly (better than 2%). In earlier weeks the reported deaths were lower. Not sure why? It allows me to do this in depth analysis & comparison with EuroMOMO influenza. Image
Analysis of Europe's Excess Deaths is hard: EuroMOMO provides beautiful plots; data requires hand-recorded mouse-overs. COVID19 2020, Weeks 08-19 & flu 2018, Weeks 01-16 is relatively easy for all age ranges (totals 153,006 & 111,226). Getting Dec. 2017 flu peak is very tricky. This is a composite with fo...
Should be easy as mouse over gives two values a week: Actual death count & Baseline value. Tests on COVID19 peak gave total of 127,062 deaths & not 153,006. Plotting table & superimposing real plot showed why. Wrong Baseline values are actually 'Substantial increase' values!! ImageImageImage
Requiring two COVID19 death counts to match means reducing Baseline value by 23,774/12=1,981. Mouse-over 2017 weeks 46 to 52 gave table below. Negative excess death meant 2017 flu began Week 49 not 46. We tried to get Age Range data for 2017 but table just use 2018 flu data. ImageImageImage

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More from @MLevitt_NP2013

Jan 16, 2022
Just so Europe does not feel left out, here are some of the larger countries.

All use the same 5.5W sheet
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

Spain 133,000 cases/day at peak on 12-Jan.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Italy 181,000 cases/day on peak on 13-Jan.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Germany 72,000 cases/day on peak on 20-Jan.

This new Omicron outbreak comes on the heels of previous outbreak (Delta? that peaked 25-Nov-21). Set start to 25-Dec, later that with 13-Dec. start.

Anyone know if outbreaks in different places like Holland
Read 5 tweets
Jan 16, 2022
USA Omicron has peaked. Daily new cases on the decline.

Open Sheet:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Big states looking good too.

California 130K cases/day at peak on 19-Jan.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Florida 59K cases/day at peak on 7-Jan.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Read 5 tweets
Aug 8, 2021
As someone who broke the news to Israeli leaders on Sweden’s handling of COVID-19 in Mar. 2020, I am so distressed to be reading this now m.ynet.co.il/articles/hj30k…

When will Homo Sapiens realize that we can never stop a tiny virus & re-engineer human biology by force not smarts?
Please note that the two translation are automatic. I give independent results from Microsoft and Google. The original is in Hebrew.

Taking this opportunity to rejoice in machine translation. It it so worthwhile to get used to its quirks.
Fortunately age-adjusted excess death in Israel for the 75 weeks from 1-Jan-20 to 6-Jun-21 is almost as small as that in Sweden (<2% of natural death in 75 weeks)

Economic, social, medical & educational cost to Israel likely higher than to Sweden.

Does anyone have good data?
Read 5 tweets
Jul 11, 2021
1/n
Growth of COVID-19 outbreaks may seems specialized, but is crucially important.

If growing by commonly used Logistic function, early growth is exponential & forecast of outcome is impossible.

For Gompertz function, growth is slowing from start allowing forecast of end.
2/n
Described on YouTube year ago, this is still not widely understood


Then we focused on small outbreaks (1000's cases) well-contained in New Zealand and South Korea.

Stimulated by @Marco_Piani & @PienaarJm, we now analyze Lompardy, NYC, UK & Spain.
3/n
Before releasing results & Excel fits, I describe the growth functions and then show raw data.

If you want to learn about growth functions, study the properties of the functions so that you can identify how the real data changes.

I got this wrong from 1-Feb-20 to 20-Mar-20. Image
Read 4 tweets
May 30, 2021
I am sure that there will be something that correlates with COVID19 death rate better that the stringency of restrictions.

Finding it is important!

The entire world needs to know what to do the next time there is a serious viral threat.
1/8
Interesting replies led me to carefully analyze data in @youyanggu GitHub table. Alway more objective when one collects data, another analyses it.

Looking at data so first tidy table in Excel.

Color formatting is red-yellow-green low value to high. Image
2/8
Rather than make plots of one measure against another, we get the correlation coefficient of all pairs of measures.

Correlation coefficient, CC, of A to B is same as CC of B to A so table is symmetric. Correlation coefficient of A to A is always 1; it is whited out here. Image
Read 9 tweets
Mar 21, 2021
1/7
Excess death (E) in any period is the difference between the actual all-cause deaths and those that are expected. Expected deaths in the current year, c, can be calculated in many ways. Easiest is to use the data from a few recent years as a reference (we use, 2017 to 2019).
2/7
Data can be used in 3 ways to calculate expected deaths.
(1) as average death in the reference years.
(2) as average corrected for the change in total population.
(3) as average for each age band corrected for its population, what we call age-adjusted.

We use 5 age bands.
3/7
(1) If D(i) is death in reference years i, then expected death in year c is E(c)=average[D(i)].
(2) If P(i) is population; E(c)=P(c)*average[D(i)/P(i)].
(3) If (P(i,j) is population of age band j in year i, D(i,j) the corresponding death; E(c,j)=P(c,j)*average[D(i,j)/P(i,j)]
Read 7 tweets

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