Thread by @heysciencesam

A quick visual guide to risk assessment, based off some of the fantastic research summaries created by @mugecevik @firefoxx66 and @ErinBromage

1/13

Your exposure risk is some function of viral dose & time.

The tricky thing is we don’t know how many virus particles it takes to cause an infection, and this will likely vary from person to person.

The good news is we know some ways to reduce our relative risks

2/13

Time is perhaps an under-appreciated component of the risk equation.

Slow & steady can “win the race” to an infection too.

3/13

Even a seemingly “low risk” activity like a conversation can become risky if it goes on long enough.

Especially if it’s in a closed environment, and even if you’re 2m / 6 ft apart.

Remember that when considering going back to the office, distance alone isn’t enough.

4/13

We should still minimize interactions as much as possible, but here are some things to think about when assessing risk of necessary interactions.

Physical distancing, hand hygiene, & cough etiquette are powerful protections, but we must also consider density & ventilation.

5/13

Here are some things you can do to reduce your risks during those necessary interactions.

If you have the privilege to advocate for these things at your workplace, please do.

6/13

This @nytimes article used cell phone data to figure out how risky different locations are based on how long people spend there, how much contact they have with others there, and the density of traffic.

nytimes.com/interactive/20…

7/13

This is an important read from @JuliaLMarcus, featuring lessons learned from the HIV epidemic: theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

8/13

Remember that not everyone has the ability to work from home, and ultimately we need long-term solutions to the inequitable distribution of risk burden during crises like this.

nytimes.com/interactive/20…

9/13

Highly recommend this thread by @mugecevik summarizing several recent case tracing studies

10/13

https://twitter.com/mugecevik/status/1257392347010215947

This thread by @firefoxx66 is a fantastic summary of studies that remind us why physical distance is important, but not necessarily enough on its own to reduce risks

11/13

https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1260905937910587392

For a more in-depth discussion on identifying & avoiding risks, please see this fantastic blog post by @ErinBromage

12/13

https://twitter.com/erinbromage/status/1259189328795840513

And if you prefer to watch vs read, I summarized some of the rationale for these risk assessments in a series of Instagram stories here: instagram.com/s/aGlnaGxpZ2h0…

Note we’re always still learning more about this new virus, so all of this is only accurate to posting date!

13/13

(PS. You can find this visual summary on Instagram (instagram.com/p/CANspQzl76c/…) & Facebook (facebook.com/20715505306503…) too, and some translations are in progress!)