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US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking:

Newly reported deaths
Today: 1,286
Yesterday: 1,645
One week ago (5/9): 1,529

Newly reported cases
T: 25K
Y: 26K
5/9: 25K

Newly reported tests
T: 357K
Y: 378K
5/9: 296K

Positive test rate
T: 7%
Y: 7%
5/9: 8%
Cases and testing data about the same as in recent days.

But the deaths numbers are on the lower end of what we've seen recently. Saturdays are typically an average day for reporting, not as bad as Tuesdays and Wednesdays but not as slow as Sundays and Mondays.
I still wouldn't put too much emphasis about any numbers reported on a Saturday. But, this is now 8 straight days with a lower death toll than what was reported than the same day a week earlier. So, that's a little something. Have a good Saturday night, folks.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
US numbers via @COVID19Tracking⁠—may be affected by holiday weekend.

Newly reported deaths
Today: 523
Yesterday: 654
One week ago (5/18): 786

Newly reported cases
T: 19K
Y: 21K
5/18: 20K

Newly reported tests
T: 441K
Y: 379K
5/18: 346K

Positive test %
T: 4%
Y: 5%
5/18: 6%
Reporting on deaths is typically slow on Mondays, and that's perhaps especially likely to be the case on a holiday weekend. Thus, there will likely be a correction midweek, perhaps a sharp one. Still, 523 is the fewest deaths reported in a day since March 29.
Cases and tests are not impacted as much by week vs. weekend effects. In fact, a record number of tests were reported today. And we had a record low positive test rate of 4.3%. So that's encouraging, though it comes after a few days of not-so-great numbers.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
I'm uncertain about a lot of things re: what will happen in the US on COVID. But some of the models show the chance of a long plateau... i.e. once we get down to ~1,000 deaths/day, we might stay there for a while. That seems plausible to me. covid19-projections.com
How could you get there? If states are willing to maintain enough social distancing to prevent R from being >1, but not more. So they'll try to prevent *increases*, but they'll tolerate plateaus. Some states (e.g. NY) explicitly have a policy of trying to keep R <=1, in fact.
Of course, because there are lags between policy and behavioral changes and the data, there's the risk of miscalculation. You think you're managing R to 1 but ... oops, turns out it's 1.5! The risk I worry most about comes in the fall if there are strong weather-related effects.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
This was inevitable, I suppose, but big increase in the number of people driving around in the US this weekend in almost every state (we're the gray line). Not much increase in transit use, however. apple.com/covid19/mobili…
What predicts mobility? Basically three things. Partisanship (people in Trump states moving more relative to their pre-COVID baseline), weather (people in states with a larger summer vs. winter temperature change moving more) and urbanization (people in rural states moving more).
Whether a state is technically "open" doesn't seem to matter much in predicting driving mobility. I'd previously found the number of COVID deaths in a state was predictive (people staying home more in states with high per-capita death rates) but that effect seems to have faded.
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