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US numbers via @COVID19Tracking⁠—may be affected by holiday weekend.

Newly reported deaths
Today: 523
Yesterday: 654
One week ago (5/18): 786

Newly reported cases
T: 19K
Y: 21K
5/18: 20K

Newly reported tests
T: 441K
Y: 379K
5/18: 346K

Positive test %
T: 4%
Y: 5%
5/18: 6%
Reporting on deaths is typically slow on Mondays, and that's perhaps especially likely to be the case on a holiday weekend. Thus, there will likely be a correction midweek, perhaps a sharp one. Still, 523 is the fewest deaths reported in a day since March 29.
Cases and tests are not impacted as much by week vs. weekend effects. In fact, a record number of tests were reported today. And we had a record low positive test rate of 4.3%. So that's encouraging, though it comes after a few days of not-so-great numbers.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking:

Newly reported deaths
Today: 995
Yesterday: 1,192
One week ago (5/27): 1,333

Newly reported cases
T: 20K
Y: 24K
5/27: 19K

Newly reported tests
T: 457K
Y: 417K
5/27: 292K

Positive test rate
T: 4%
Y: 6%
5/27: 7%
So... a positive milestone. This is the first time we've been under 1,000 deaths (albeit just barely: 995) on a day that didn't follow a weekend or holiday since April 1. Wednesdays have generally been pretty bad days, in fact. So that's good news.
But while deaths have been falling, what's happening to cases is more ambiguous. My guess is we have maybe 20 states where the situation is clearly getting better, 3-5 where it's getting worse, and another ~25 where it depends on how you construe the data.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
If you poke around here you'll find quite a few states where different COVID metrics (cases, share of % tests, deaths, hospitalizations) point in different directions and/or the number of tests is fluctuating and it's not entirely obvious what's happening. public.tableau.com/profile/peter.…
If you carefully investigated each state, you could probably formulate a well-informed opinion as to what was really happening. And there are some states (e.g. NY) where all metrics are clearly getting better and a few (e.g. AZ) where they're all getting worse
But be wary of quick-and-dirty takes that don't look at the data as a whole. A lot of them are not very robust and, of course, people tend to construe the data in a way that matches their priors.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
I know this seems like a super obvious point, but when assessing how voters evaluate Trump and where his approval ratings might go, it's perhaps important to note that both COVID and the protests involve profound disruptions to everyday life in a way that say impeachment didn't.
The protests perhaps slightly less so if you're not living in a major city, although there are also a lot of protests in smaller cities. But the images on TV will instantly remind Americans everywhere that "this is not normal".
But there are a lot of voters who, in ordinary times, are softly pro-Trump. They may not like his conduct. But they think "politics is silly", "both sides are so partisan", "this stuff is overblown". LOTS of people in this bucket and they are underrepresented on social media.
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