The main reason I throttled down my writing on COVID of late is that, whereas at the beginning of the outbreak the "what to do" was quite uniform across geographies, it now isn't anymore.
The opposite: doing the same everywhere is the surest way to run into problems.
(1/4)
The opposite: doing the same everywhere is the surest way to run into problems.
(1/4)
2/ Now we have a bit more clarity about which activities are worse than others (eg working in close space vs exercising outdoors), which prevention measures work (eg face masks), and so on.
Still, we do not understand the virus well yet, and that's still an additional risk.
Still, we do not understand the virus well yet, and that's still an additional risk.
3/ There is no one-fits-all conclusion, but rather a bottom-up approach of:
- areas of different colors
- applying a tailored approach to each, maximizing what we know works or isn't risky, and minimizing what we know is risky
- restrict travel bw areas of diff color
- areas of different colors
- applying a tailored approach to each, maximizing what we know works or isn't risky, and minimizing what we know is risky
- restrict travel bw areas of diff color
4/ Any black-and-white approach is likely to hit tail risk either on the health side or on the economic/political one.
Any "country-wide policy" with no fractal division is bound to be fragile to error (in either direction), inefficient, and bureaucratic rather than practical.
Any "country-wide policy" with no fractal division is bound to be fragile to error (in either direction), inefficient, and bureaucratic rather than practical.
5/ For example, the cost/benefit of, say, keeping retail close depends on many factors, such as the infection rate, store location, demographics, capacity to socially & financially withstand the lockdown, etc.
These are very specific to the location considered.
These are very specific to the location considered.
6/ Instead, considerations that would apply everywhere include: wear face masks, keep borders tightly controlled, test as much as possible, isolate the sick, etc.
7/ Therefore, ideally, we'd split the territories, letting the communities find out what's best for each, while making sure we cap the tail risks as much as possible by limiting the consequences of errors (such as a local outbreak or a new syndrome).
8/ IMHO, as @LieraMarco says, the job of the government should be that of risk manager. Not deciding what protocol the whole country follows. But letting counties decide, while keeping internal borders tight, testing, face masks etc, to cap the risk of inter-county transmission.
9/ If a country makes its provinces effectively independent and disconnected while testing extensively, it can allow to spot and contain eventual second-waves, to generate resources to redistribute. Not ideal, but perhaps better than black-and-white, one-fits-all situations.
