1) Im rarely willing to make short-term predictions on #tankers, but I see a strong chance of next-weeks rates having at least a modest bounce.
Could be wrong of course, but I think there are 2 very reliable long term data patterns that support that view:
Could be wrong of course, but I think there are 2 very reliable long term data patterns that support that view:
2) I ve talked about the first one which is MEG-supply. Fearnleys already reported tightening supply for last week (see chart). Given current port congestion in FE+ extended May fixtures this month, I think the situation is likely worse by now. 
3) Its very unsusual that we still havent seen a June charter by the 17th of the month. In theory that further tightens the window & elevates short term action despite production cuts. The Fearnleys data could also be massively impacted by port congestion.
4) If their data is based on reported deload dates, imagine the impact of vessels deloading 7-14 days later then scheduled. The delayed impact on MEG supply would be massive. In case you are still questioning the importance of that data point:
5) The other reason is more basic: MEG week. This happens every month - an under-appreciated side effect of that is that unlike normally 70-80% of spot fixtures going short-haul, 90-100% of next 2 weeks fixtures will be AG/India/FE.
6) SH charters tend to get a premium over long-haul, which leads to a higher avg spot rate reported. Remember that all those charts & spot rate data you are watching is based on daily sub reports. While intuitive, I think this is always under-appreciated during MEG week end/
