Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #tankers

Most recents (24)

How can a #school become more water #sustainable? 🧵 Image
In this image, a typical school’s water sources, use and disposal processes are numbered. Image
Asking the right questions to understand the #water context of your school will help make your campus more water sustainable.

Here are some important questions to consider:
Read 8 tweets
My outlook for tankers in 2023, Spot TCE (daily earnings Eco non scrubber) average for the whole year. #tankers
VLCC: $39000😐
SUEZ: $34000🙂
AFRAS: $42000😍
LR2: $45000😍
MR: $26000 😒
VLCC: Once dust settles and new trade lanes become natural, we'll see more term liftings and less spot activity, keeping rates on a higher base but lower than the last few months.
SUEZ: With Libya and WAF at full production this should perform well and keep a balanced list elsewhere, with CPC paying a premium
Read 7 tweets
This is the product tanker investment hypothesis in its entirety -- replacing Russian gasoil from further sources, sending utilisations to 99% and earnings to $250k/day. By now, it has become an unquestioned mantra in the market. One small problem… #tankers $ASC $HAFNI $STNG Image
When we constructed our European recession scenario a few months ago, with a 3% decline in 2023 real GDP, we felt a bit extreme. We later trimmed it to -2.6%, but now feeling this might be too sanguine. Weak Case sees an extended downturn à la BoE. ImageImage
This chart is the same in every country, with road diesel showing strong income elasticity. In Europe's case, diesel shortages & high prices may be limiting industrial production and pressuring GDP, as well as the traditional mechanism. Image
Read 12 tweets
The problem with this assessment of the OPEC+ cuts, & the tanker commentary that you post, is the sticky assumption that oil demand will grow 2.1 mbpd next year, per the IEA latest. This is nonsense, and with tomorrow’s IMF WEO release, this is “should” start to change. #tankers
We have argued that retail tanker longs are disadvantaged by listening to shipbroker & sell side analysts, who do not have the analytical tools & large datasets to convert alternative macro outlooks into new oil & tanker demand forecasts, amidst lagged demand data.
Both the IMF & IEA are hopeless at economic inflection points, like where we have been this year, and unfortunately, both shipbrokers & the sell side are reliant on the IEA outlooks, who in turn, are driven by the slow-moving IMF.
Read 7 tweets
Think Different- in #shipping. A case study rvw 🧵.

We published our first public bullish report on #containership #shipping 2 yrs ago.

Our picks: +386% after 2y, *after* including the big pullback in mid-2022 (1y returns even higher!).


After patiently accumulating #shipping during the 2020 carnage, we shared a conviction sector alert in August 2020 with 5 diversified picks.

This call was *NOT* popular at the time.

+224% in 25 months after after weak trading this summer.


More recently, our exclusive #shipping #research focus shifted to #tankers, where we issued a buy report on 31 January 2022 due to skewed negative sentiment and lopsided risk/reward.

Very few talking tankers back then!

+153% in 8 months.


Read 6 tweets
Updated our PADD1/PADD3 mass balances for the quiet hurricane season so far & for scheduled maintenance. Medium-term drop in USG exports from P3 demand, net capacity reductions & more sustainable utilisations & yields, but also from critical PADD1 requirements. #tankers #oott
The trade press loves running apocalyptic headlines on the low gasoil inventories in PADD1 and elsewhere, but the market needs to adjust to lower stocks and just get over their 5-yr averages. Still, just to keep stocks stable in PADD1 this Autumn & Winter…
PADD1 will need to draw higher pipeline flows of mid-distillate from PADD3, amidst a tighter seaborne export market. Note the 200 kbpd jump from Summer levels.
Read 5 tweets
$DIS.MI has a lot to run, this incredibly modern product fleet is mostly MRs, the best performing segment between last report and now, with the NAV increasing significantly over the value signaled in the slides is probably very close or above 40c USD #tankers #products $STNG
The Euro collapse means that the stock is lagging even more than it appears compared to peers and the quality of the fleet, the insider ownership mixed with the good ESG profile made this stock a must buy for me and I recently increased my position.
Being an internal business and the little float I don't think it's gonna be influenced a lot by the Italian elections and the stock market is probably already pricing in a lot of disorders.
It's a niche stock but probably an hidden gem, I strongly suggest the analysis of it
Read 6 tweets
1/ 2022 is on pace to see the lowest level of ship demolition since 2008.

This is into a global merchant fleet that has more than doubled in size over the same period.

High rates have ships out trading longer which means the fleet is getting older... for now.
2/ Although high shipping rates are likely to keep demolition muted for the balance of 2022, at some point this trend will need to reverse as 22% of the global fleet is now over 15 years old.

3/ Very few of these ships over 15 years old will comply with new IMO carbon efficiency regulations take effect January 1 2023. Costs to retrofit are prohibitive and are likely to result in early retirement of older ships even with high rates.…
Read 6 tweets
Updated global fleet age and replacement requirements courtesy of the latest Danish Ship Finance report.

We are going to be hearing a lot more about negative fleet growth in #tankers and #drybulk in the coming years. Strap in for higher rates 🚀
Shipbuilding capacity still decreasing. Many second tier yards are unable to build the modern designs and sizes required. 129 second tier yards that delivered a ship in 2021 *did not receive any new orders in 2021*. These yards will most likely cease to exist in coming years.
Drybulk fleet detail. Orderbook to fleet acutely low in small sizes.
Read 5 tweets
1/ Dear all, many among you have asked me about my opinion on #oil, #logistics, #pipelines, price movements and a reality check on the #german #embargo plans. So I decided to make another explanatory thread. Grab a beer, this may take a while to read.
2/ It has often been said that oil is a global #commodity that travels on the seas. That view is not wrong, but incomplete. In fact, much oil is shipped by pipelines, on all continents. For an imcomplete but illustrative overview, see…
3/ Most pipelines either distribute incoming seaborne supplies to inland consumers (e.g., refineries), or they route domestically produced oil to seaports where it is loaded on #tankers.
Read 25 tweets
1/ Time for a check-in on $NMM

With clean product tanker rates surging I have seen a lot of enthusiasm and speculation about what this means for EPS going forward.

Updated my model with the latest charters from 20-F and ran a spot rate sensitivity on remaining open/index days:
2/ Unfortunately most of $NMM's product tanker fleet is already fixed for Q2, gradually rolling off charter throughout the rest of the year and into 2023.

It seems more likely to be a tailwind to an already huge contract backlog in containers and strong expectations in drybulk.
3/ Personally I am expecting around $16 EPS and $700M of operating cash flow for 2022 with the way markets are shaping up.

This puts year end net debt and capital leases at around $900M and EV at around $1.8B
Read 7 tweets
More observations on EU/US sanctions on Russia & possible implications on logistics disruption.

In April, India bought Russia crude for frist time ever. It bought 15mb in April according to news, altough we yet only measure 9mb as at 17 April 2022 through @Kayrros.

1/4 Image
How much crude needs to be diverted to Asia if self-sanctioning (or EU ban) bites? At least 2.9mbpd of Russian Urals in EU (1.6-1.8mbpd seaborne; 1.3mbpd Druzhba pipeline system into the EU) need to be diverted. So far, seaborne loadings increased in March! Time will tell.

2/4 Image
What does it mean to divert 1.8mbpd seaborne Urals away from Europe & into Asia? According to our calculation, it would increase ton-miles by a factor of 6 (!) & voyage time by a factor of 5 (!). In other words, Russian crude voyages will jump from 15 to 75 days on average.

3/4 Image
Read 5 tweets
1/ 15 months ago I penned an article entitled "Welcome to the New Container Shipping Supercycle" questioning the premises of popular conceptions of supply and demand at the time.

Some reflections on what I got right and what I got wrong.

A 🧵...…
2/ New ship deliveries are not hard to predict 2 years into the future as it takes upwards of 18 months to build most ships from contract date. A dearth of new ordering through late 2020 ensured insufficient supply coming to market to through 2023 to meet demand.
3/ I was also correct that there was limited capacity to add additional megamax ships in 2024.

What I completely underestimated was the enormous demand and shipbuilding slot availability for new panamax ships in lieu of available megamax capacity.
Read 13 tweets
1/ #Tankers are the biggest beneficiary of changing trade patterns due to Russian sanctions. PERIOD.

A look into why tanker rates are surging this week and why this is just the beginning.

A 🧵...
2/ The picture is becoming even clearer that Russian oil which used to go via pipeline and short sea to Europe will go all the way to China and **BACK** instead.…
3/ **BACK** from China? YES. The West is structurally short on refining capacity and the deficit is getting larger as Russian refining capacity becomes shut in and European refiners struggle to source the slate needed to run at full capacity.…
Read 16 tweets
Time for another rather unexciting weekly update! Pretty much a repeat of last week, where my portfolio saw some weakness early on, yet managed to crawl back up & ended up flat regardless! Down around 0.5% points, current YTD is 82.5%!
Current portfolio:

Sadly ASTL weighted down on performance this week & I had to make the tough choice to trim it down, so I could afford buying some #TANKERS!!! Added DHT & OET as VLCC rates finally have begun showing life again, looks VERY promising!
Comments: took profit from my SPUT longs a bit too early this week & added to SV longs instead, as I reduce leverage to minimize volatility in these wild times. So don't expect flashy moves from my portfolio, as I've intentionally tried to make it NOT do that!
Read 4 tweets
Wait, Huge!

$EURN $FRO #Tankers Image
- Ditch Belgium status with Dividend headaches?
- Savery Family aggressively buying into EURN, insider information?!?
- Allows Fredriksen’s daughters to more easily exit some exposure in a few years
- Large enough to get into Indices/passive money flows?
Read 6 tweets
Credit Suisse macro guru Zoltan Pozsar is even more bullish #tankers than the tanker bros here on twitter. His latest report makes the same macro call on tanker ton miles that I have been making

I can feel the generalists piling in 🚀

And although Zoltan goes into gory detail about tankers, his thesis extends to all seaborne commodities and the ships that transport them.

If he is right about additional bottlenecks, shipping rates across sectors will explode along with underlying ship asset values. Image
Ship values benefit when both the values of the commodities they transport and the steel they are made of increase.

Shipowning companies are levered long expressions of a high inflation macro thesis and could end up being the best performing real asset class this decade.
Read 3 tweets
#EIA #oil data: #crude -1.9 mln bbls; at 411.6 mln; -13% v 5-yr avg for period
#gasoline -1.4 mln bbls; +1% v 5-yr avg
#distillate -5.2 mln bbls; -18% v 5-yr avg
#propane -1.6 bbls; -21% v 5-yr avg
Total commercial stocks -8.1 mln bbls
#OOTT #OPEC #diesel #shipping #energy
#EIA #oil #data: U.S. #crude oil #refinery inputs averaged 15.4 mln bpd week to March 4, 2022, -21,000 bpd vs previous week; #refineries operated at 89.3% capacity; #gasoline output rose to 9.6 mln bpd, #distillate output fell to 4.6 mln bpd.
#OOTT #diesel #energy #refining
#EIA: #oil data: U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.3 mln bpd last week, +0.6 million bpd vs previous week; last 4 weeks #crude oil imports averaged 6.2 mln bpd, +10.1% vs year-ago period
#OOTT #OPEC #diesel #shipping #inventory #energy #data #exports #crudeoil #tankers #imports
Read 4 tweets
Oh boy look at the time, it's Saturday & time for my weekly update!!! Started the week well, gave back a bit in the middle but managed to climb back up & ended with a 4% gain for the week, 22% gain YTD 🥳

Nothing too impressive, despite oil & coal doing a thing!
Got quite the W in my AMZN punt (albeit not even close to as much as I hoped...), but it was just a 2% punt that was partly offset by my FB punt lol.

Sadly had to trim core holdings to fund my gambling, but gonna buy back on weakness!!!
Sadly also got no #tankers exposure currently, which is pretty funny given how everyone else turned BOOLISH tankers now that Iran seems to get their nuclear deal after all... so plan next week is to buy back my positions in $DHT $TNK $INSW $FRO !!!
Read 4 tweets
Time to discuss the ugly cousin of 2021.

The cheapest, most attractive risk/reward part of the freight world.

The best value that I see in the whole commodity spectrum(apols #uranium clan).

You might have already guessed it; it’s finally time to talk abt #tankers #OOTT 1/n
had to keep on producing, floating storage was the only solution leading to a majestic surge in freight rates. As lockdowns eased, floating storage was no longer needed, thus supply came back online while demand was nowhere near 2019 levels. Naturally the mkt collapsed. 3/n
To date it has not recovered. 2021 has been an annus horribilis for the tanker market. Indicatively, $VLCC ytd returns are -$615/day (not a typo!). At the same time demand was getting normalized and $OPEC was steadily increasing production. 4/n
Read 12 tweets
Global shipping fleet in perspective thanks to UNCTAD. New ship order books for #tankers and #drybulk are at decade lows, yet shipyards are full through 2023-end with orders from other sectors. Sure looks like a massive shortage of aggregate shipbuilding capacity coming 2024+
Shipyard capacity has been declining for a decade and 2022 will be the most painful year for shipbuilders yet. Orders have since recovered, but many yards have locked in contracts at unprofitable levels due to high steel prices and could post losses through 2023.
Although it is obvious that more shipbuilding capacity will be needed to replace the surge of ships ordered during the last boom, shipbuilders will only begin repairing balance sheets in 2024 and will need years of profitability before planning new capacity.
Read 5 tweets
A thread on #oil #product #tankers with excerpts from the latest Gibson weekly report:…

"Refinery rationalization is back on the agenda. With a prolonged weakness in refinery margins due to Covid-19 related demand destruction and an uncertain future..."
"...for hydrocarbon consumption, many refiners have decided to throw in the towel, choosing to either sell, close, or convert their refining assets. The impact is not just in Europe, but global. Aging capacity in the United States, Asia and Australia is also under threat."
"On a global basis, up to 2.6 million b/d of crude distillation capacity is at risk of full closure, or conversion to other purposes. But what does this mean for the tanker market?

In reality, it is unlikely to be a game-changer in the near term."
Read 5 tweets
$STNG's Robert Bugbee & Hafnia's CEO Skov had a wide-ranging #tankers discussion w/ @RivieraMaritime 10 days ago.

It's shockingly hard to find this video, which is probably why it only had 15 views when I found it.

@ClassicValueInv & @mintzmyer
2/ Summary Notes follow:
Aging fleet, limited new builds, recovering end-market demand, etc. Weak near-term. Tight supply.

Same core story #tankers has been batting about for 18 months.

Notes: believe scale requirements (and consolidation) for product tankers going forward...
3/ are bigger than recent past (see recent $DSST and $ASC news as potential evidence).
Read 14 tweets
I'd like to share some thoughts about #tankers $EURN $STNG $FRO $DHT $TNK $INSW $ASC $TRMD $OET & the market in general.

It's counter-productive at best & delusional at worst to guide your investment decisions (I'm not talking about short-term trading) based on the market 1/n
whose inefficiency you seek to exploit.

Either you see a market inefficiency and move to exploit it or the market is pricing the asset efficiently and thus you move on (or accept market results).

From a short-term trading perspective things are different. You seek to 2/n
ride the market's ups & downs & thus you must constantly be tuned to the market's fluctuations & try to see what comes next.

If you're investing, volatility isn't risk. Your risks lie on business performance.

You buy what you think the market will like in a year or more 3/n
Read 13 tweets

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