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One of the arguments being made for rushing to reopen, never mind the epidemiology, is that workers are desperate. And without question the lockdown has inflicted huge economic pain. But one thing I hardly ever see mentioned is how much aid the unemployed are getting 1/
Brookings did an analysis suggesting that about half the wage losses in April were offset by unemployment benefits. But this offset has almost surely risen substantially from the April average 2/ brookings.edu/blog/up-front/…
On one side, availability of UI has expanded as states get past their bottlenecks, and the enhanced benefits in the CARES Act, which reached few people in April, are reaching many more now 3/
On the other side, job markets seem to have stabilized in late April. So benefits are expanding, while wage income has probably stopped falling 4/ nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Not saying that workers are doing fine. They aren't. But expanded benefits — included at Democrats' insistence — have greatly reduced the pain. 5/
Actually, want to share my version of the Brookings calculation, just for future reference. Hours worked have fallen off a cliff, declining 16% since Feb. 6/
If the wages of those laid off were the same as the average wage, this would have meant $109 billion in lost income. But laid-off were paid less than average, which is why average wages spiked 7/
So we're probably well under $100 billion in wage losses. Meanwhile: 8/ cbo.gov/system/files/2…
And as the Brookings study pointed out, UI much more extensive in mid-May than April average 9/
Now, small-business lending is a mess. But Congress did much more than people realize to help the unemployed, which is something those agitating for early opening should acknowledge 10/
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