The open vs. closed debate really boils down to whether you think there's a vaccine or effective prophylactic coming in the next 12-18 months.
If a vaccine never comes and hospitals aren't overwhelmed and immunity is achieved post-infection, there's some first mover advantage 1/
If a vaccine never comes and hospitals aren't overwhelmed and immunity is achieved post-infection, there's some first mover advantage 1/
Unfortunately, today this relies on unknowns. First, we don't understand the role of antibodies or the long term impacts yet (I think more is known about this than some are letting on, but...). If longer term immunity isn't a thing, herd immunity can't be reached. 2/
Then there's the question of long term impacts. If herd immunity means that 75%+ of the population loses a percentage of lung capacity or risks other serious complications, are we okay with that? I don't think we should be if we have a choice. 3/
The economy as it exists today won't survive in the post COVID world without a vaccine/effective prophylactic. I think the only real options are:
1. Try to wait this out
2. Reimagine the post COVID economy now
3. Proceed with little/no strategy 4/
1. Try to wait this out
2. Reimagine the post COVID economy now
3. Proceed with little/no strategy 4/
If there's no vaccine coming, then #2 is what we should be doing right now. Some are doing this already at a micro level, but right now that seems to be more about stopgaps for individual businesses to attract/retain customers. 5/
If a vaccine is coming quickly and this is a one time thing, then there's benefit to waiting this out (approach #1)
But let me be explicit about this: there is ZERO long term benefit to option #3. There are however short term benefits, mostly at an individual level. 6/
But let me be explicit about this: there is ZERO long term benefit to option #3. There are however short term benefits, mostly at an individual level. 6/
And this is where I'm back to being pretty disappointed in the government. People are scared and need leadership and a sense of hope.
Without a plan, people are going to act in their own perceived best interest. But that's not best for society. Ugh. 7/
Without a plan, people are going to act in their own perceived best interest. But that's not best for society. Ugh. 7/
I don't have answers, other than we need a plan from the government. Something that doesn't sound like Star Trek, offers transparency, and is something we can trust.
We aren't there and until we get there, the reopening debate will continue (and so will too many deaths). /FIN
We aren't there and until we get there, the reopening debate will continue (and so will too many deaths). /FIN
