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Welp, here we go ... the Third Bank of the United States. wsj.com/articles/the-f…
The Fed is now making loans to medium sized business and taking credit risk in the real economy.

Capital markets are now permanent political utilities, where access to gov’t “liquidity” matters and productivity doesn’t.

We had a good run.

We’re all MMTers now.
Stagflation in real economy and capital markets managed like your local water utility is now my base case.
With the Fed now lending brrrrrr money into the real economy, this note is more important than ever.

epsilontheory.com/three-body-pro…
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Ben Hunt
@EpsilonTheory
Our leaders botched the Covid19 war, and we are defenseless against a now endemic disease.

15,000 to 20,000 Americans officially sick. 500 to 1,000 Americans officially dead.

Every day.

The free world does not easily survive a globally endemic Covid19.

epsilontheory.com/self-assured-d…
We don’t have a Covid-19 strategy. We have a Covid-19 spasm.

First, we ignored the initial small provocations and the warning signs of trouble because we weren't prepared with actions we could take short of all-out war. Instead, we minimized and we excused.
Then, when we finally responded, we acted in an incredibly heavy-handed, all-or-nothing fashion that inflicted maximum damage on both the true war-fighting targets AND targets that have nothing to do with the fight at hand.
Read 6 tweets
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Ben Hunt
@EpsilonTheory
23 years ago, I wrote a book called “Getting to War”, about how gov’ts mobilize public opinion through normative narratives (what I now call Fiat News) before starting a war.

This is how it starts. This is how it always starts.
If you don’t see that self-defense and “we had no choice” narratives of rearmament and military conflict are building in both the US and China, you’re just not paying attention.

As both the US and China beat the war drums louder and louder, no country will be caught in the middle worse than Australia.

Read 3 tweets
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Ben Hunt
@EpsilonTheory
"SoftBank cut the estimated value of shared-office company WeWork to $2.9 billion as of March 31, less than one-tenth of its peak valuation and less than half of what SoftBank said it was worth just three months ago."

I'm old enough to remember last quarter's slide deck.
But through no fault of their own!

I, for one, look forward to the inevitable BOJ "liquidity program" for Softbank. It's only fair!

#BailoutSoftbank

wsj.com/articles/softb…
h/t @matt_levine for these slides from today's Softbank presentation.

Masayoshi Son doesn't invest in unicorns ... he invests in pegasus unicorns!
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