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Pinched part of a seating diagram of a Cross Country Voyager train to show you what the Government's suggested social distancing looks like when applied to a carriage.

Green seats are the only seats that should have passengers. There should be no standing passengers either.
That makes for a capacity of just 16 passengers in a carriage with 62 seats, or 25.8% of seats. (But of course you also lose 100% of standing capacity at busy periods, which is where the figure of 15% of normal capacity comes from.)
(To be 100% clear: I amended their diagram myself. This isn't something officially put out by Cross Country. They just happened to have a tidy sketch.)
And the other half of the picture presumably looks something like this (please forgive my sub-basement graphics skills)
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