Thread by @Peoples_Pundit

1. Here's some Electoral College Context:

In 2016, @realDonaldTrump won 48.5% of the total vote and 51.4% of the two-party vote in the Six Rust Belt States of Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

@HillaryClinton won just 45.9% and 48.6%, respectively.

2. Compare that to CNN Poll, @realDonaldTrump leading @JoeBiden in 15 states, 52% to 45%.

Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

National polls can obscure.

3. One of the most important observations we can make this November is the Electoral College vs. Popular Vote.

The CNN Poll would seem to indicate the trend I've been arguing exists, will continue and has been exacerbated.

Big states have big immigration trends.

4. For many years, national polling was a leading indicator for states, which more closely mirrored the nation as a whole.

That's just not reliably true anymore. Big states have made big changes over the last two decades, demographically.

Longterm, it'll likely get much worse.

5. Why did I cite the Six Rust Belt States: Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin?

FYI...

First, that's where I strongly suspect the election to be decided, specifically. Second, I was asked to put together an idea for something new, something fresher.