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Rich Baris The People's Pundit Profile picture
Rich Baris The People's Pundit
@Peoples_Pundit
Director @BIGDATAPOLL and host of 'Inside the Numbers'. Opinions are my own. Data don't lie. People do. Love @LauraBaris and my kids.
178 subscribers
Oct 13, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
This thread reports on the DeSantis/Haley Feud over who sucks less. I'm going to quote repost a few with data showing why they are both making arguments that are incorrect and irrelevant.

Ready? Adding Reality Check Number One to thread.
Oct 12, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
In 2018, @JohnKerry met in London w/ Hussein Agha, a close associate of Mahmoud Abbas, and told him NOT to talk peace with Trump B/C he would be removed from office w/in a year and after Abbas would get a better deal.

Abbas refused to meet w/ Mike Pence. peoplespunditdaily.com/news/politics/… 2. @JohnKerry asked Agha to tell Abbas that Palestinians should “play for time” until Trump was removed, after which, it would be the "time for Palestinians to define their peace principles" instead of accepting Trump's two-state proposal.

Now all these people are dead.
Oct 3, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Many trash @RepMattGaetz to avoid discussing the real cause of dysfunction.

Republicans have a representation problem, i.e. they have none. They lie to get elected and ostracize anyone trying to keep promises.

No political party can survive NOT representing their voters. Republican leadership and the vast majority of the elected conference in both chambers lie to get elected, then cave in the face of opposition from media and Democrats, while selling out their voters to donors and rent-seekers.

It's not a sustainable political environment.
Sep 26, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
A few things people who misread the electorate never understood, and why things they thought would hurt Trump have actually made him stronger.

1. Regime Credibility

This isn't the 1980s. GE voters do not trust his enemies. FBI, DOJ, etc. are deeply corrupt and voters know it. Once upon a time, federal prosecutors had credibility and their accusations in indictments were trusted. But nobody trusts them anymore, with good reason.

It's been bad for years, but bad actors like @Comey, @petestrzok, Weismann, etc, totally killed all faith in the feds.
May 30, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Post Script: The scumbag who did that owes us thousands of dollars and is the reason we @BIGDATAPOLL now have a pay first policy.

He's basically a former cop pretending to be a political strategist who folds up shop with each billing cycle, because the law makes it hard to chase… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Laura, when they first pulled that libel, attempted to publish his deadbeat account for all to see, but @elonmusk and his fake crusade against speech suppression kept suppressing it.

In fact, she tried again tonight and it refused to publish, again.

So... I think I'll do it...
May 20, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
The DeSantis strategy 'he's the anti-lockdown champion' isn't working for a few reasons, the biggest being 1) voters aren't stupid and 2) it's not true.

As @barnes_law correctly pointed out, he was still threatening businesses 2+ months after Trump said, "the cure cannot be… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… And let's not get started on masks and the vaccine. He was faster than most governors, but not exactly clean on this issue.

Here he is SUPER stoked to JAB this World War II Veteran with the Pfizer Shot.

He died shortly after.
foxnews.com/health/world-w…
May 19, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
We have seen (unsurprisingly) a major difference in support by "mode" of collection. Trump always does worse in live interviews (mid-high 40s) and DeSantis does the best (low-mid 30s).

It's the only mode in which Trump never hit 50%.

This is tonight.

It's going in the wrong… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… Image It means DeSantis has now fallen into the 20s even among live interviews, and if the online and SMS were to even remain the same, he'd fall to about 15% or lower.

It's ugly, folks. Ugly.
May 13, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Astonishing how few pollsters and pundits are explaining to people the significance of a candidate being at or above 50%.

Yes, even this "early in the process".

We spent a lot of time on it on the show today, i.e. Historical & Polling Stats 101.

Omission is misleading people. Yes, even this early in the process, at this point:

No candidate has lost the nomination with 60+ endorsements from NTL and Gov elected offices, in the modern era.

No candidate has lost the nomination polling at or above 50%, in the modern era. peoplespundit.locals.com/post/3986033/w…
Apr 13, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Ron DeSantis, who would have lost in 2018 if not for the president, had absolutely nothing to do with it.

Vote for whom you want, folks. Seriously. But I absolutely can’t tolerate bullshit.

Trump’s policy toward Venezuela and Cuba, coupled with his outreach, bonus… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… The “Old Southern White Democrat” registration shift from DEM to REP was over before Barack Obama left office.

State-to-state migration, specifically from NE USA and California, sent Florida a ton of REP voters who settled in the Tampa Area, and South.

During his… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Mar 28, 2023 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Exactly right. This is a mental health issue and it's been known for decades how media play a contagion role. It used to be referred to as the "Columbine Effect". Sadly, the media-inspired events to follow are almost always more deadly.

They hate the Second Amendment and simply… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… This might come as a surprise now, but @MotherJones did fabulous work covering the Columbine Effect, specifically @markfollman and @kbeccaandrews.

Absolutely fantastic work.
motherjones.com/politics/2015/…
Mar 28, 2023 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Here's the @nypost doing an expose on how badly we polled in 2020. In the next thread, I'll include the link for another review via The Epoch Times re: 2016, who hired us to give them a Biden +4 even though we're garbage. nypost.com/article/the-re… And here it is. It hurts to share this review of our 2016 record. Honestly, I cannot believe they hired us to do their national polling, which was final Biden +4, for 2020.

It was a miracle.
theepochtimes.com/young-polling-…
Mar 21, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Two Myths of Empire for Senator Cornyn in a single day!

@MZHemingway is right. You really need to read a few books. For starters, Chamberlain caved when Germany had the potential to make a run at hegemony.

Russia has no such advantage in either latent or military power. Here is the first Myth of Empire Cornyn invoked earlier today. It's of course the same myth used to muster support for the Iraq Invasion, arguably the biggest foreign policy blunder in U.S. history.

We got Domino Theory and Offensive Advantage in one day!… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Jan 31, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
There were acts of political violence before and after each of the instances @RepMattGaetz cited re: Democrats challenges to Trump and Bush in Congress after elections.

Violence in 2016 was widespread and in just about every major U.S. city.

Here's the real difference... Real difference is that the ruling class finds it completely acceptable when political violence hurts and destroys the property of the non-ruling class.

They think D.C. belongs to them, not to the sovereign voter, and view it as a personal attack.

That's not acceptable to them.
Jan 22, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Blind Lemon Jefferson.

As my grandfather used to tell me when I asked him what someone or something was...

Look it up...

You won't be disappointed. Then... T-Bone...

He'll take Blind Lemon to another level...
Jan 10, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
My God. Tomorrow, this guy will be trashing people for linking deaths to the vaccine "without widespread evidence" or some very similar language. Here's another acting as if they're intimately familiar with her medical chart. Shocker, it's someone who touts being in the entertainment industry and a native of DC.

Tomorrow, these same people will be trashing those who question vaccine-related deaths.
Dec 18, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Looks like @cygnal already does this, so we are sticking to the original question re: America’s favorite version of “A Christmas Carol”

Alistair Sim’s “A Christmas Carol” remains slightly ahead of George C. Scott, with “The Muppets Christmas Carol” not that far behind. Favorite Rendition/Version of "A Christmas Carol" by Ebenezer Scrooge:

Alastair Sim - “A Christmas Carol” (1951): 20.9%
George C Scott - “A Christmas Carol” (1984): 18.2%
Michael Cain - “Muppet Christmas Carol” (1992): 16.1%
Bil lMurray - “Scrooged” (1988): 12.3%
Dec 17, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1…
Dec 8, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
If you're an idiot and believe those stories, then sure. I guess you could infer that.

Another way to look at it is that they voted against a "pastor" who supports aborting babies against their religious beliefs and runs a church that pays him a fortune while evicting the poor. Truth be told, the only people uncomfortable with a successful black man who speaks like a rural southern African American, is the uniparty.

Walker offended both limousine liberals and country club conservatives, equally and alike.

Wajahat Ali. Lol.
Nov 30, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
You cannot use prior turnout rates solely to argue that issues didn't impact the outcome of elections.

Arizona, as did other states, had a higher turnout than the national overall. To say it's "unlikely" it couldn't have been higher, is absurd.

It's much more complicated. Vote method impacted is the key issue here. ED by area to be more specific.

Just to give people a simple example: If only 2% of total Maricopa turnout was turned away and it was in the areas we know effected, the margin was significant enough to put the result in doubt.
Nov 15, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Pima County really had plenty of time to ensure this was resolved tonight. It's pathetic. The fact Lake did better (again) in this batch really does just stir more confusion and distrust in the process.

They should just hold back until all are processed. This is not healthy.

Bottom line though, Lake needs a big margin in Maricopa. PR-wise, it won't matter.
Nov 13, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
It really doesn't matter whether it was intended or not, the result of the issues that arose on Election Day in Maricopa effected turnout and disproportionately hurt Republican candidates.

Data by congressional district is VERY clear. REPs were far more likely to report issues. This is NOT simply due to Republicans being more likely to turnout on ED.

Maricopa is huge and multiple congressional districts representing both parties have large swathes of it within their boundaries.

These issues arose in disproportionately in more Republican areas.