Director @BigDataPoll and host of 'Inside the Numbers'. Opinions are my own. Data don't lie. People do. Love @LauraBaris and my kids.
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Mar 28 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Exactly right. This is a mental health issue and it's been known for decades how media play a contagion role. It used to be referred to as the "Columbine Effect". Sadly, the media-inspired events to follow are almost always more deadly.
Here's the @nypost doing an expose on how badly we polled in 2020. In the next thread, I'll include the link for another review via The Epoch Times re: 2016, who hired us to give them a Biden +4 even though we're garbage. nypost.com/article/the-re…
And here it is. It hurts to share this review of our 2016 record. Honestly, I cannot believe they hired us to do their national polling, which was final Biden +4, for 2020.
Here is the first Myth of Empire Cornyn invoked earlier today. It's of course the same myth used to muster support for the Iraq Invasion, arguably the biggest foreign policy blunder in U.S. history.
There were acts of political violence before and after each of the instances @RepMattGaetz cited re: Democrats challenges to Trump and Bush in Congress after elections.
Violence in 2016 was widespread and in just about every major U.S. city.
Real difference is that the ruling class finds it completely acceptable when political violence hurts and destroys the property of the non-ruling class.
They think D.C. belongs to them, not to the sovereign voter, and view it as a personal attack.
That's not acceptable to them.
Jan 22 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Blind Lemon Jefferson.
As my grandfather used to tell me when I asked him what someone or something was...
Look it up...
You won't be disappointed.
Then... T-Bone...
He'll take Blind Lemon to another level...
Jan 10 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
My God. Tomorrow, this guy will be trashing people for linking deaths to the vaccine "without widespread evidence" or some very similar language.
Here's another acting as if they're intimately familiar with her medical chart. Shocker, it's someone who touts being in the entertainment industry and a native of DC.
Tomorrow, these same people will be trashing those who question vaccine-related deaths.
If you're an idiot and believe those stories, then sure. I guess you could infer that.
Another way to look at it is that they voted against a "pastor" who supports aborting babies against their religious beliefs and runs a church that pays him a fortune while evicting the poor.
Vote method impacted is the key issue here. ED by area to be more specific.
Just to give people a simple example: If only 2% of total Maricopa turnout was turned away and it was in the areas we know effected, the margin was significant enough to put the result in doubt.
Nov 15, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Pima County really had plenty of time to ensure this was resolved tonight. It's pathetic.
The fact Lake did better (again) in this batch really does just stir more confusion and distrust in the process.
They should just hold back until all are processed. This is not healthy.
Bottom line though, Lake needs a big margin in Maricopa. PR-wise, it won't matter.
Nov 13, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
It really doesn't matter whether it was intended or not, the result of the issues that arose on Election Day in Maricopa effected turnout and disproportionately hurt Republican candidates.
Data by congressional district is VERY clear. REPs were far more likely to report issues.
This is NOT simply due to Republicans being more likely to turnout on ED.
Maricopa is huge and multiple congressional districts representing both parties have large swathes of it within their boundaries.
These issues arose in disproportionately in more Republican areas.
Nov 12, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read
Team McCarthy took weeks to call back @votejohngibbs and only did so when he got pressure from Team Trump.
He recruited and funded candidates to defeat GR MAGA. His leadership fund sent mailers depicting @joekent16jan19 next to Adolf Hitler during the primary.
Turnout is very heavy, very early in Maricopa. This is a real serious problem. No voter should ever have to leave their ballot in a box in the corner of the room and expect it to be handled properly at some point later.
It's a chain of custody nightmare and easily exploitable.
Nov 6, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
VBMs in Clark County aside, what really matters will be the REP margin among INDs.
Dean Heller, the last non-Sandoval REP to carry the state (+1.2%), won INDs by 20pts in 2012, 53/33, lost Clark by 9pts.
Romney (-6.6%) only won INDs by 11pts, lost by Clark by 15pts.
In 2018...
In 2018, both Heller and Laxalt lost INDs by roughly 20pts.
In 2016, Trump won them by them 13pts, more than Romney and Clark was tighter (Clinton +10), but he still came up just shy.
The difference between that 13-15 to 20pt range for the IND margin really means everything.
Nov 6, 2022 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
I’ll tell everyone what it was right now, though it’s not the smartest fight for REPs to have before a midterm.
When Ron DeSantis is chatting with @kevinomccarthy and Team Paul Ryan behind the back of the man who made him the governor of Florida, it was bound to happen.
It’s called a shot across the bow and it’s in response to what Trump has been hearing is going on behind his back, which more than a half of dozen donors and scores of sitting congressman have told me is true.
Nov 5, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
For @OnLocals: Using the Buckeye State Battleground Poll Test to Scrutinize Two Theories Ahead of Tuesday
We spoke with 731 Likely Voters and modeled two electorates. The results in the state of Ohio are fairly conclusive unless past is NOT prologue. peoplespundit.locals.com/post/3005801/t…
FYI, the first electorate is weighted to be more favorable to Tim Ryan than 1) the likely voter model supports and 2) the electorate in 2018.
This race is NOT 2018. Tim Ryan is NOT Sherrod Brown (incumbent) and J.D. Vance is a far stronger candidate than Jim Renacci.
...
Nov 1, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
You and your garbage POLITICO poll are full of shit.
This is bothering me and I'm over it.
Your poll is the Bottom 10 Poll for three straight election cycles. You fake ass reporters obviously all got the memo to smear the "GOP outlier" polls that have outperformed you.
How dare anyone from @politico attack any polling firm, especially ones they brand as "rightwing" because they didn't make fools of themselves for three straight cycles.
Don't hate on anyone else because you're willing to bend over and take it from a political party.
Scum bags.
Oct 28, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
This is a legitimate explanation. All of us who contract real-time election results from AP or DecisionDesk are currently testing their APIs.
The real concern is about media incompetence, because it's completely unacceptable to display test API data live as a result.
Sadly, Fox 10 Phoenix is not the first nor will they be the last to be so reckless and incompetent.
It does little to inspire confidence in them when they assure the public, the consumer and voter of the integrity of our elections, and smear those who dare to question them.
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