Thread by @RogerPielkeJr

I have always disliked - in any discipline - studies that focus on unitless or derived metrics as proxies for what they really want to measure

In this case they are examining hurricanes not via observations of hurricanes, but analysis of metrics of observations of hurricanes

https://twitter.com/RogerPielkeJr/status/1262492550595657729

I don't think anyone is surprised that there is a greater proportion of major hurricanes since 1980 (even 1970). Here is our global landfall data showing a similar trend
That is not news (IBrTRACs has a similar trend)

But our knowledge of tropical cyclones does not begin in 1980 (or 1970). Here is a look at landfalls from 1950, based on the basins for which we have good data.
1980 is clearly at a low point of activity in past 70 years, so will lead to trends starting there, again, not news

In fact, the scientific consensus is that we should not be seeing significant trends in TC behavior in 2020 (see Emanuel journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.11…) & shouldn't expect to until later this century
So if we are seeing trends expected in 2080+, then our models are badly wrong

Here is another emergence timescale paper that says we shouldn't be seeing trends today:
Bender et al 2010. Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes. Science, 327:454-458. science.sciencemag.org/content/327/59…