I have been digging into methodological and data errors in Grinsted et al. 2019, some of which you can see in the thread below

This nerdy thread on US hurricane loss data documents how bad data gets created (surely accidentally) . . .

https://twitter.com/RogerPielkeJr/status/1760773545397834047

A time series of base (i.e., current-year) loses was first compiled from annual reports published in the Monthly Weather Review by Chris Landsea in 1989 for 1949-1989

I extended the data using same methods to 1996

Chris and I extended back to 1900 for Pielke and Landsea 1998

Last month I revealed based on files part of the public record of the Michael Mann trial how Mann coordinated peer review of a paper of mine to ensure that it "would not see the light of day"

I only had a snippet of the relevant Mann email

Now I have the whole thing

And JFC... First
New: the editor of GRL, Jay Familigetti, originally sent our submission to Mann!

That's right
A paper by Pielke & @ClimateAudit was sent to Mann to peer review

Mann wisely didn't accept but instead recommended hostile reviewers so that "it would not see the light of day"

🧵
"The U.S. installed 1,700 miles of new high-voltage transmission miles per year on average in the first half of the 2010s but dropped to only 645 miles per year on average in the second half of the 2010s"

Take that 645 miles/year to the next Tweet...

gridstrategiesllc.com/wp-content/upl… The US has 240,000 miles of high voltage transmission capacity

An expansion of 645 miles/year is just about 0.3%/yr

Take that 0.3%/year HV grid expansion to the next Tweet

SpringerNature held off sending my submission for peer review because:

"We thought it prudent to seek advice on the potential risks of publishing claims that may appear to criticise the actions of government bodies"

Now under review

Read it here:
osf.io/preprints/soca…
I was only informed of the evaluation of my paper for political risk after that review took place

This is a plain vanilla policy evaluation, but that should not matter

So in addition to passing peer review it had to pass political review

Just when you think you've seen it all

Biden: LNG exports—>historic hurricanes & floods
But is that true?
🧵⤵️

https://twitter.com/javierblas/status/1750831386238341213

How about hurricanes?
Not increasing

🧵
I have a new favorite example of bad statistics on disasters

By 2085, climate-fueled natural disasters will cost more than $100 trillion, or more than the entire US GDP

Big if true!

What is the methodology? EM-DAT of course

Misinterpretation Left
What EM-DAT says right:
"what the figure is really showing is the evolution of the registration of natural disaster events over time"

Whoopsy

Our peer-reviewed research on US hurricanes and their impacts is widely cited in the literature, cited by the IPCC & consistent with NOAA and WMO assessments

Here is how the US National Climate Assessment dismissed it and then ignored it, choosing not to cite or challenge The US National Climate Assessment doesn't like this research so it ignores it

🧵
G20 Declaration
Important note related to climate & out-of-date climate scenarios underlying major international discussions and agreements

A major misuse of science right in front of us . . .

https://twitter.com/MEAIndia/status/1700472082654495154

The G20 relies on scenarios of the NGFS, a non-governmental, unaccountable organization funded by climate advocacy groups
ngfs.net/sites/default/…

🧵Against cherry picking

Weather is amazing
It happens everywhere on Earth all the time
Sometimes weather is extreme
Extreme weather has impacts
It is also visually compelling

Weather is also a renewable resource for hyping climate change irrespective of what research may say An example
US wildfires area burned through 14 Aug from 2013-2023

2023 is the lowest area burned in the last 11 years

What does this tell us about climate change?

That it is a hoax? No
That it does not affect fires? No

2023 & this trend tell us nothing about climate change

🧵👀
Following the released of FOIA emails yesterday showing scientists associated with the "proximal origins" paper that sought to "debunk" any lab-related origin of COIVD-19

I thought I'd go back and look at the timeline of earlier FOIA emails (Fauci-Farrar) on PO origins The origins of the "proximal origins" paper
(here: )

apparently began 1 Feb 2020 with a phone call between Kristian Andersen and Tony Fauci in which KA relayed concerns of an "engineered virus"

Source for all emails:
https://t.co/yrvw5W9F3o https://t.co/85hQxih47Pnature.com/articles/s4159…
documentcloud.org/documents/2331…

🧵
OK, a thread titled "why do this?"

I'm reading a new paper claiming attribution of all increased burned area in CA to climate change
Turco et al in PNAS today
pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pn…

They start their data in 1971 even though reliable data exists much earlier, so I'm curious In the data description they use a dataset called FRAP - CalFire Fire Resource and Assessment Program

They make a point that they compared the FRAP data to data used in references 1 and 48

OK I go have a look at the SI Appendix to explore these different data wondering why 1971

Andrew Dessler blocks me on Twitter
He just wrote a Substack post about my research on hurricanes

Had he not blocked me then he'd have known that he is repeating a rather large mistake by the IPCC 😎
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/a-tip-from-a…

These guys are scared to death of engaging me directly I just left a comment at Dessler's post (screenshotted below)

I'm happy to see him engaged my peer-reviewed research and the IPCC (though he apparently is unaware of the most recent NOAA statement)

Here is his post:
theclimatebrink.substack.com/p/climate-chan…

🧵
How much economic growth would be necessary for everyone to be at current Denmark per capita GDP?

According to some numbers from @MaxCRoser the global economy would have to increase by about 7.2x

Lots of assumptions but let's go with it
ourworldindata.org/poverty-minimu… Is it even possible to increase the global economy by 7.2x?

Sure it is

That's about the amount of GDP growth from ~1960 to today, ~60 years
data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.G…

🧵
There are two systemic areas of climate misinformation that permeate the media, policy and politics

Implausible climate scenarios & climate and extreme weather

On the latter I've written 6 detailed posts on what the IPCC & official data actually say

Let's review . . . What the media won't tell you about . . . Floods
Let's take a look at what the IPCC and recent research actually says

IPCC: No detection or attribution of trends
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/series-what-…

🧵
on Canada wildfires, focus on Quebec
Focus on detection and attribution of trends
Not forecasts of the future

Let's start with IPCC
The IPCC does not attempt to detect or attribute trends in wildfire, instead it focuses on "fire weather" defined below
AR6 Ch.12 IPCC expresses "There is medium confidence that weather conditions that promote wildfires (fire weather) have become more probable in southern Europe, northern Eurasia, the USA, and Australia over the last century"
IPCC AR6 Ch.11

The IPCC does not project eastern Canada to become more fire prone under any climate scenario, even RCP8.5 The IPCC has only low to medium confidence in detection and attribution of trends in wildfire
Via IPCC AR6 Ch.2
ipcc.ch/site/assets/up…

🧵The very low death toll being reported so far from Cyclone Mocha in Myanmar is part of an incredible and under-appreciated success story of science, technology, policy and implementation

A quick thread on tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal . . . The BoB is a hotbed of tropical cyclone activity, the figure below shows 50 years of TC tracks and their landfall locations
doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr…

Just the Facts on Global Hurricanes
More storms?
Fewer but more intense?
More landfalls?

No, No and No

rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/just-the-fac… Climate journalists just make stuff up

The Axios link below goes to the IPCC AR6 SPM which is silent on TC rapid intensification

Go to Ch.11
It says: "Event attribution studies of specific strong TCs provide limited evidence for anthropogenic effects on TC intensifications..."

🧵
A huge problem with "attribution science" is that dozens of models are run to attribute & then models are selected to in/exclude after knowing their results

➡️Deadly drought in Horn of Africa ‘would not have happened’ without climate change carbonbrief.org/deadly-drought… If you have dozens of models producing many dozens of diverse results, it becomes easy/seductive to post-hoc construct a method that selects for those models that give the "right" answer

That's why many fields require preregistration:
science.org/content/articl…

🧵
I talk a lot about RCP8.5, and rightly so

But there is another scenario that is just as widely misused, and that is RCP4.5

Let's talk a bit about RCP4.5 . . . RCP4.5 is a scenario that includes climate policy which alters the world's trajectory from a 7.0 W/m^2 trajectory in the GCAM reference scenario
link.springer.com/article/10.100…

🧵
What the media won't tell you about extreme weather and its impacts

Here is a thread of some of the figures I've posted in recent months about extreme weather that I have never seen in legacy media reporting

All peer-reviewed and official sources . . . Floods
IPCC finds no trends in flooding globally

Did you know that flood impacts in the US as a proportion of wealth are down >70% over 80 years?

Huge news, good news!

But don't tell anyone 🥸
rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/series-what-…